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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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305 FXUS64 KJAN 190521 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Rest of tonight... Evening analysis indicate the Gulf Coast states trapped on the western periphery of the stout ridge over the Mid Atlantic states while deepening trough over the Intermountain West. Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC1) remains over the open waters of the Bay of Campeche, with deep fetch of anomalous tropical moisture extending across a wide swath of the Gulf of Mexico & expected to propagate into the western Gulf of Mexico. As the ridge at the sfc & aloft sink in from the northeast, drier air (i.e. 00Z BMX sounding observed < inch & a quarter PWs) is progged to build in. This will help conditions become slightly more seasonable, maybe a touch above normal, in the lower 70s & slightly warmer northwest of the Natchez Trace. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Isolated showers will continue into tonight mainly in western Mississippi. Overnight lows will remain seasonable despite the cooler afternoon today as remaining high humidity that has settled over the area will be slow to dry out despite an increasing easterly fetch. By the early morning hours on Wednesday clouds thicken into widespread overcast which will persist until mid morning. By that point, the sun will begin breaking through and skies should largely should clear, giving way to partly cloudy skies for Juneteenth. Easterly winds may be breezy, particularly during the peak mixing period of mid afternoon, and winds could gust up to 20 mph. Later This Week... The deep layer high situated off of the east coast will strengthen and and the western flank will expand its influence locally. Increasing heights aloft will bring generally clearer skies and higher temperatures. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out for the rest of the week mostly along and south of the Highway 84 corridor, mostly driven by intense afternoon heating. Deep layer moisture will remain below climate normals through the weekend and this should result in any showers or storms being isolated and generally disorganized. Strong to severe storms are unlikely though brief heavy downpours could be possible should any isolated, brief afternoon thunderstorm manage to form. The main hazard of concern for the area will be the risk for excessive heat as dewpoints will recover by Saturday and Sunday into the upper 60s F and lower 70s F after having fallen into the lower and middle 60s through midweek. This coupled with temperatures into the upper 90s F to near 100 F in some locations could result in heat indices above 105 F. Heat hazard products may be required later this week. Into Next Week... Dewpoints and overall boundary layer moisture will largely have recovered across the area by Monday. This will likely allow us to return to a more seasonal pattern of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Heat risk could still be a concern, but the overall risk will likely be modulated by convective coverage and confidence in that hazard is low. Tropics will remain active through the period with continued unsettled weather likely in the Gulf of Mexico. There are little if any current indications that this will pose a substantial risk locally, but this area of disturbed weather will be monitored closely as trajectories and intensities of any tropical feature several days out carries large forecast uncertainty. The vast majority of strong hurricanes occur after July 1 so as we are now heading into the end of June, it`s a good time to review your hurricane preparedness strategies and supplies. /OAJ/86/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Despite high clouds over the region, VFR flight categories will prevail at most area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Some patchy low stratus will be possible toward day break over namely KMEI, KHBG & KPIB. This could briefly bring ceilings to MVFR status between 10-13Z. This will quickly erode shortly after sunrise, with a return to VFR categories expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds overnight will be calm to light from the west northwest around 3-5 knots. Winds will increase from the east around 10 knots by late morning, with gusts around 20 knots possible. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 72 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 90 70 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 90 72 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 91 72 93 72 / 20 0 10 0 Natchez 90 72 91 72 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 92 72 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 91 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19