Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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122 FXUS64 KJAN 290935 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 435 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Today and Tonight: Dangerous heat conditions will continue to be the primary hazard in the short term period as early morning global guidance continues to show upper ridging building over the southeast CONUS. Southwesterly low level flow will continue across the forecast area today. This will allow for dewpoints to hold in the upper 70s across our CWA, with a few spots across the Delta seeing dewpoints in the 80s. This combination will yield heat indices well into the 105-115 F deg range areawide. For this reason, an excessive heat warning remains in effect from 10 am this morning to 8 pm Sunday evening, including the Delta, southeast Arkansas, and northeast Louisiana. Elsewhere, a heat advisory remains in effect mainly for areas along and east of the I-55 corridor. Later in the afternoon, it is possible that some of the counties currently under heat advisory could see slightly higher dewpoints. If this trend holds, it is possible that several counties could see an upgrade to excessive heat warning. Rain chances will be fairly low across northwest portions of our area with the best rain chances (between 60- 70%) across the Pine Belt. No changes were made to the heat graphic for today and we maintained a "Significant" heat risk for areas where the excessive heat warning remains in effect. Rain chances will begin to diminish heading into the evening hours. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 70s across the area providing very little relief heading into the overnight period. /CR/ Sunday through Friday: Heat is still going to be the main message for the week ahead. As the subtropical ridge moves east over the Gulf Coast region through the week, subsidence below the core of the ridge will limit rain chances and support mostly above normal temperatures. This isn`t to say rain is impossible, but just that rain chances increase more around the periphery of the ridge. A "cold front" moving south into the area Sunday night into Monday will arrive in advance of the ridge`s passage, with the week`s best areawide chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Temps on Monday will even be knocked down a few degrees north of Interstate 20, but as the front washes out temps should quickly rebound for the rest of the week. Daily rain chances will be focused in the afternoon with peak heating and mainly in the south and southeast with possible sea breeze activity and better moisture availability. Flow trajectories around the high will bring drier air generally from the east through most of the period. Guidance looks to be trending a little drier for Thursday July 4th, though a slight chance to chance for showers and storms cannot be ruled out at this time. Friday into the weekend, the ridge shifting farther east will allow for troughing to more influence the central and southern US. Another cold front moving into the region will likely bring another focus for rain during the weekend. Will continue to evaluate Heat products for this Sunday, but current forecast temp/dew point values yield similar values for current Advisory/Warning configuration. Monday`s heat will be mainly in the southern half of the area, and an extension of the Heat Advisory is possible for those areas. Headlines likely to continue into the Independence Day holiday as well if trends continue as they are. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Local radar scans currently show a few isolated showers west of the I-59 corridor, but will not have an impact on visibility through the forecast period. VFR conditions will occur across all TAF sites to start off the TAF period. Ceilings will remain in VFR status through 18Z Saturday. Isolated SHRA and TSRA will briefly impact the southeast half of the area with MVFR/IFR ceilings possible across southern TAF sites (PIB, HBG, & HEZ) starting a little after 19Z Saturday. Showers and storms will begin to clear from the southeast by 00Z Sunday with VFR ceilings prevailing. Light southerly surface winds will prevail across the forecast area with gusts between 5-10 knots. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 94 76 93 76 / 50 20 60 20 Meridian 93 74 95 73 / 70 20 80 20 Vicksburg 95 77 95 76 / 30 10 40 20 Hattiesburg 94 76 95 77 / 70 40 80 20 Natchez 94 75 93 76 / 40 20 40 20 Greenville 97 79 96 76 / 20 20 50 20 Greenwood 96 77 96 73 / 20 20 60 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-047-053-059- 060. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074. LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/NF/CR