590
FXUS62 KJAX 300734
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
334 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY THROUGH LATE EVENING...
...HIGHER HEAT INDEX POSSIBLE TODAY...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Broad low level troughing extends across the Carolinas and GA
today while low level Atlantic ridge axis remains across the
southern FL peninsula. Mean layer flow remains weak enough that
the west and east coast sea breezes will develop and push inland
during the peak heating of the day. Once again, PWATs are higher
than normal with JAX sounding from 00z registering 2.31 inches.
There is some weak forcing aloft, mainly for northeast FL, as the
mid/upper level high is located over LA while weak mid level
perturbations rotate southward over the region. Have generally
60-80 percent POPs, with some strong storms possible with gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall. The main axis of heavier
rainfall is noted parts of inland northeast FL south of I-10. Some
localized flooding is possible. Highs today will be in the lower
to mid 90s, with heat indices meeting heat advy criteria for a
time over parts of southeast GA where a heat advy has been posted.
Other locations may see brief heat indices near 105-108, but not
enough confidence now to post additional advisories.

Tonight, the broad low level trough over the Carolinas and GA will
shift a bit southward, with weak embedded sfc low around 1013 mb
forming near Macon GA. Guidance shows scattered to numerous storms
inland, mainly west of Highway 301. Specifically, an axis of heavy
precip is indicated from around Alma southward to just south of
Lake City and Live Oak. Localized flooding is certainly possible.
WPC has indicated a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for these
areas. Activity will slowly wind down overnight. However, after
midnight, lingering precip is still expected with a few showers
and possibly a couple of storms. Lows will be in the lower to
mainly mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A cold front pressing down from out of the north is expected to
stall over Georgia by Tuesday with stronger convection developing
ahead of the frontal boundary with a potential for severe thunderstorms
forming on Monday over southeast Georgia and adjacent Florida
counties. Deep-layer moisture with PWAT values rising to be about
2.25 to 2.75 inches ahead of the front will result in storms
capable of producing heavy rainfall with a potential for
localized flooding. High temperatures for the beginning of the
week will be in the 90s for most inland areas and in the upper 80s
along the coast and for areas behind the frontal boundary.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over
inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline. Heat
advisory conditions may be possible on Monday and Tuesday as heat
index levels rise to 108 and above during peak daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Convection will become relatively less widespread as the week continues
as drier air associated with the weakening front moves to cover
the forecast area with the prevailing flow becomes more out of the
north and northeast as high pressure shifts further eastward.
Daily high temperatures are expected to experience a warming trend
through the week with max temps rising into the upper 90s going
into the weekend. Potential for heat advisory conditions will
continue and become more likely by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A few showers are over inland areas near JAX, VQQ and SSI at 06z,
but should fade over the next 1-3 hours. Some patchy fog or a
brief stratus layer possible around 09z-13z inland areas early
this morning, but appears to be low or very low chance of impact
to the terminals. Once again, a moist airmass will lead to diurnal
showers and storms today, mostly starting up around 18z and
continuing into the evening hours. Highest chances generally
around GNV in the aftn. For now, holding onto PROB30 groups for
convection with MVFR and IFR shown with gusty winds. Should see
convection slowly fade late evening and overnight. Sfc winds will
be light and will allow the east coast sea breeze to develop at
SSI, CRG, and SGJ this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Westerly winds start out today light at about 5-10 kt. With a
developing east coast sea breeze, winds will shift to the south
or southeast later this afternoon. Winds will then increase to
10-15 knots and gusty by this evening, as the pressure gradient
increases as a trough of low pressure presses down over GA and the
Carolinas. A weak front will slowly drop southward over the
southeast states early next week, and may enter our GA waters late
Monday night or early Tuesday morning. This will begin a trend of
more southeasterly flow by Tue and Wed. Seas have shown a slight
upward trend over the past 1-2 days but still remain about 2-3 ft
today/tonight. Winds and seas may trend a bit upward by Wed.

Rip Currents: Given a slight upward trend in surf and a near
midday low tide, a low-end moderate risk is posted again today.
A dominant easterly swell/wind-sea continues at 9-10 seconds with
small wind waves of 1-2 ft, suggesting the moderate rip current risk,
which may persist on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  76  93  74 /  60  60  80  50
SSI  92  79  90  78 /  60  30  60  60
JAX  94  76  93  75 /  70  40  60  40
SGJ  92  75  93  77 /  60  30  50  40
GNV  92  74  92  74 /  70  40  60  30
OCF  92  75  93  75 /  80  50  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ136-151>154-165-166-264.

AM...None.
&&

$$