Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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648 FXUS62 KJAX 120618 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 218 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Low MVFR ceilings of 1,000 - 1,500 feet are expected to develop at GNV and VQQ after 08Z, with periods of IFR ceilings possible around sunrise. MVFR ceilings of 2,000 - 3,000 feet are forecast to develop after 12Z at SGJ, with periods of MVFR ceilings possible at the Duval County terminals and SSI during the morning hours. Confidence was too low to indicate anything other than scattered ceilings at the Duval County terminals and SSI at this time. Ceilings are expected to lift to VFR at the regional terminals by 18Z. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the mid to late afternoon hours at the northeast FL terminals, with activity increasing in coverage and intensity along the Interstate 75 corridor during the late afternoon hours, and confidence was high enough to include a PROB30 group at GNV after 19Z through 00Z, with IFR visibilities possible during heavier downpours, along with brief wind gusts up to 30 knots. Showers will begin to move onshore from the Atlantic waters towards the end of this TAF period, possibly impacting the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals as well as the Duval County terminals overnight. Light southerly surface winds overnight at the northeast FL terminals will shift to easterly after sunrise. Meanwhile, light easterly winds overnight at SSI will shift to northeasterly towards sunrise, with speeds increasing to around 15 knots and gusty after 15Z. Surface winds will shift to northeasterly at the rest of the terminals after 17Z, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots outside of thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours. && .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A frontal boundary, extending from broad low pressure area over Gulf, will lay northeast across forecast area Tonight. With loss of diurnal best convective chances will end this evening, but a few showers could still pop up during the overnight given ample moisture and frontal convergence. Lows Tonight will range from the lower 70s inland, to the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 An area of low pressure develops into a closed low as it moves northeastward along the stalled boundary draped across NE FL and exits into the coastal Atlantic waters by Wednesday night. Model differences continue with the ECMWF as the faster solution with a closed low emerging into the Atlantic Wednesday morning and then weakening as it shifts further into the Atlantic. The GFS lags behind the other models but further strengthens the low on Thursday as it meanders along the boundary into the Atlantic. At this time, the environment remains unfavorable for tropical development and so NHC has highlighted only a low chance for development. Showers and thunderstorms develop mainly across NE FL on Wednesday as the low pressure spreads tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in) across NE FL. Flow becomes northeasterly with the low in the western Atlantic and filters in some drier air into SE GA for Thursday. Rain chances will be slightly lower for Thursday. Deep tropical moisture remains over north-central FL where 1-3 in. of rainfall will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. Rain and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The subtropical jet aloft and surface boundary will remain positioned just to the south of our region through Friday, which should keep the majority of the higher mean layer moisture to our south and therefore lower chances for convection. By the weekend, surface high pressure over the northeastern US shifts offshore and induce a more easterly onshore flow over the region. Although this will increase available moisture in the lower levels, high pressure also looks to build in/strengthen aloft which will result in some increase in subsidence in the upper levels. Given the time of year, will likely still be chances for showers and t`storms diurnally daily for the weekend and into Monday, though chances look lower than average as of now. Guidance has been suggesting an elongated trough like feature from the Caribbean into the western Gulf around the start of next week, though higher pressure overhead should help to keep the feature suppressed well to the west of the area. Regarding temperatures: Temps will be slightly above average for Friday and into Saturday, though tending closer to normal by Sunday and into the start of next week with the increasing onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The frontal boundary will remain stalled across our local waters today, with showers and thunderstorms initially over central Florida gradually spreading northward towards our area this afternoon. Weak low pressure will then develop along this stalled boundary tonight over the northeast Florida waters, with this feature moving slowly northeastward through Friday. Prevailing onshore winds are expected late this week as this weak low pressure center moves further away from our local waters. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across through the upcoming weekend as the frontal boundary remains stalled. A stronger high pressure center will build southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes region this weekend, with a surge of onshore winds possible by Sunday and Monday as this feature wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine with a south-southeasterly ocean swell to create a low-end moderate rip current risk at area beaches. This lower end moderate risk will likely continue during the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 70 92 69 / 10 10 20 10 SSI 87 76 87 75 / 20 10 30 20 JAX 90 72 90 71 / 40 10 40 20 SGJ 89 75 88 73 / 50 30 60 30 GNV 91 71 91 69 / 80 30 50 20 OCF 90 72 90 71 / 80 60 60 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$