006
FXUS63 KJKL 301219
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
819 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring thunderstorms to some locations today,
  with the greatest probability in south central and southeast KY.
  A few storms could produce strong wind gusts.

- A short-lived break from the heat and humidity is forecast on
  Monday behind the cold front, quickly followed by a return of
  sultry conditions.

- An active period of showers and thunderstorms may occur
  Wednesday through Friday. The greatest probability for showers
  and thunderstorms appears to be on Thursday, Independence Day.
  Heat indices will return to near 100 for many locations during
  this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Precip is more plentiful than anticipated near the TN border early
this morning, and the POP was raised there for this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 559 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024

A cold front is entering KY from the northwest early this morning,
supported by an upper level trough over the Great Lakes headed
east toward New England. Warm/moist advection ahead of the front
has been helping to keep slightly elevated convection firing
through the night. As heating occurs today, convection will become
surface based and further increase in coverage ahead of the
front. With the front moving through the forecast area during the
day, this will place the highest POP in south central and
southeast KY where the front arrives latest. Shear will be rather
negligible, but a fair amount of instability could give some brief
strong storms. The last of the thunderstorms will end in
southeast KY late today or this evening.

Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front, with a
noticeable change in air mass area wide by Monday morning. Most
places are not expected to have temperatures get out of the 70s on
Monday, and this will be accompanied by dew points dropping to
comfortable levels in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 452 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024

The large scale flow pattern aloft at the beginning of the extended
will feature a large ridge of high pressure aloft extending from the
northern Great Lakes southward through the Mississippi Valley,
western and central Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. A surface
ridge is forecast to be in place over the eastern Great Lakes into
western New England. A large trough of low pressure is progged to be
in place just offshore of northern New England and moving further
offshore as the ridge to the west pushes east. The northeastern
trough will also have a cold front extending southwestward down the
eastern seaboard and into the far southeastern CONUS and into the
western and central Gulf of Mexico. Another large and well developed
trough is forecast to be moving eastward across Montana, Wyoming
and portions of the interior west to start the period.

The upper ridge will slowly progress to the east through mid-week,
as the western trough also pushes east, allowing hot and dry weather
to persist. As the upper trough strengthens to our west, it will
pick up speed and push the upper level ridge off to our east, likely
by early Wednesday night. Once the ridge has been displaced far
enough, we should see a cold front moving in from the west. This
boundary will be associated with an upper trough that will also be
moving eastward just north of the Canadian border. By early
Wednesday evening, the surface front should be close enough to allow
a few showers and storms to fire and begin moving into our northwest
counties. The showers and storms will steadily increase in coverage
Wednesday night, as the front moves closer. The front should finally
make a solid push into our area by late Thursday morning, and will
continue through the area through out the day on Thursday. The
afternoon and evening hours will see widespread showers and storms
around the front. The front will eventually stall, as another trough
moves in from the west along the front. The combination of the
trough and front will allow showers and storms to persist across
eastern Kentucky the end of the forecast period early Sunday.
Another increase in showers and storms is expected for very late
Thursday night through Friday, as the upper trough makes a strong
eastward push. The activity should finally begin to taper of heading
into the weekend, as the surface boundary shears out and moisture
begins to dwindle.

Temperatures will generally be slightly above normal through
Thursday, with daily maxes in the upper 80s to at times lower 90s on
tap, as high pressure will be the primary feature in place over the
region. Friday could also be a bit warmer than normal, but Saturday
should finally see a cool down, as the front moves through the area,
allowing cooler air to filter in on western winds.

We will watch the forecast for Thursday and Friday closely, for the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, as showers and storms could be
robust at times. With dewpoints also forecast to be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s, hot and muggy conditions will be possible across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 818 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms persisted near the TN border at
the start of the period, but they were slowly weakening and
settling further south. These will bring localized sub-VFR
conditions. As diurnal heating/destabilization occurs, another
increase in showers/thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon near
and ahead of a cold front passing southeast through the area. This
convection is most likely near and south of a line from KSME-
KJKL- KSJS. This activity would again bring sub-VFR conditions.
Precipitation will taper off from northwest to southeast behind
the cold front, and should mostly be out of the forecast area by
00Z. That will leave mainly VFR conditions through the night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL