839
FXUS63 KJKL 021849
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
249 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring
  showers and thunderstorms to the region today, followed by a
  decrease in activity for tonight and Monday.

- After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday
  morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again
  increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10
  degrees above normal.

- Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in
  the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly wane with the loss of
daytime heating this evening, with weak westerly flow aloft as upper-
level ridging builds over the area. Any amount of clearing will
result in the formation of widespread patchy to areas of fog, some
of which could be dense in the typically fog-prone sheltered valley
locations. With high humidity expected, lows will range from the mid
50s to lower 60s.

Despite upper-level ridging overhead Monday, a weak mid-level
disturbance will combine with marginal instability to produce
isolated to widely scattered rain showers and possibly a few
afternoon thunderstorms, with the highest likelihood of seeing
storms over the eastern Kentucky mountains bordering Virginia. With
sun breaks in the afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s at
most locations.

Upper-level ridge axis moves just east over the Appalachians and
Upper Ohio River Valley Monday night, with increasing southerly flow
ahead of the next disturbance. However, it appears any
precipitation chances will arrive after the short-term period
ends. Nevertheless, expect another night of patchy to widespread
fog in the valleys, with lows falling into the upper 50s for most
valley locations and lower to mid 60s elsewhere.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

The models are in general agreement with an amplified and more
blocky pattern to be the rule over the CONUS through next week.
Detail differences become larger after Thursday, lending to lower
forecast confidence. As such, did not deviate much from the
blended guidance regarding PoPs. Monday night into early Tuesday
morning, a 500 mb ridge axis will be aligned from Quebec through
the eastern Great Lakes, Upper Ohio Valley, as well as the
Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure will be positioned
over New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, stronger
short wave energy will be moving east from the northern/central
Rockies to the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. This will take
on more of a negative tilt through Wednesday morning, as it
swings over Midwest region and into the Great Lakes and portions
of the Ohio Valley, with a surface cold front propelling
southeastward. As mentioned previously, models then diverge
thereafter, with lower 500 mb heights and some degree of cyclonic
flow being maintained over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Again,
there is quite a bit of spread in the model guidance, so
confidence in the forecast is low.

As for sensible weather, dry and warmer conditions will start out
over eastern Kentucky. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of next
week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. PoPs have trended slower
for Tuesday, with low chances (20-30%) moving in from the west in
the afternoon, as moisture gradually increases. PoPs look to peak
on Wednesday, with likely to categorical chances (70-80%), with
the approach of the surface cold front, as well as the arrival of
better mid and upper level support. Higher PoPs (60-70%) will
linger into Wednesday night, with chance PoPs (40-60%) for
Thursday. Highs will average in the low to mid 80s for the middle
of next week, before cooling off to the upper 70s to lower 80s for
Friday and Saturday, Lows will cool from the low to mid 60s, to
the mid and upper 50s. There will likely be a lull in the PoPs
Friday and Saturday; however, given the overall agreement of some
degree of cyclonic flow, will maintain some low chance (20-30%)
and mainly diurnally driven PoPs for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

An area of showers is moving across the forecast area producing
MVFR/IFR cigs currently. These showers will continue to move east
and out of the area over the next couple of hours. However, with
partial clearing will come increased destabilization and the
development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. KSME
and KLOZ are the mostly likely areas to see thunderstorms, but any
TAF site will be susceptible to TSRA with brief/temporary
reductions to IFR or lower conditions. What`s left of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to die out during the evening, and
clouds should begin to decrease. This will set us up for fog and
low clouds developing late tonight, resulting in IFR or worse
conditions for most locations.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC