405
FXUS63 KJKL 131937
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
337 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather holds into the afternoon, before an approaching
  system from the Plains brings more unsettled conditions.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through Wednesday
  with a lull on Thursday then renewed chances to close out the
  week.

- Near, to a little above, normal temperatures are expected
  through the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure is still out to
the east along the North Carolina coast line. Meanwhile, low
pressure is developing across Missouri along with a cold front.
This is providing south and southeast flow at the surface, which
has led to mostly downslope flow. This has kept it dry this
afternoon and will continue to be the case until we can moisten up
in the low levels later this afternoon and evening. In the mid-
and upper levels an upper low will push toward the Ohio Valley
tonight. The CAMs and ensembles like the HREF have been in decent
agreement with bringing a line of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm across the area later this evening into the overnight
hours. This could be in response to a slight increase in the low
level jet noted in some of the ensembles. Given this opted to stay
closer to the NBM PPI for PoPs this evening and into tonight, as
it seemed to have this handled fairly well.

Tuesday, this upper low meanders eastward toward the Ohio Valley.
This coupled with and area of low pressure and some upper level
divergence will give way to another shot (70-90 percent) of
showers and thunderstorms through the day. However, there will be
a lull in activity early in the day. Some of the data suggests
there would be just enough instability (MUCAPE around 1000-2000
J/kg) and shear (effective shear of 30-40 knots) to help organize
some of this convection. The HRRR and other CAMs want to bring an
line of convection through the area tomorrow afternoon around 17Z
and progresses across the area through the remainder of the
afternoon into the evening. Right now, it looks like a marginal
set up for severe weather, but strong storm or two can`t be
completely ruled out. The primary risk would be small to perhaps
marginally severe hail. SPC did push the marginal risk into a very
small portion of the Cumberland Valley. Tuesday night, the shower
and thunderstorm chances roll on given upper low is still
meandering east. However, its a little more uncertain how
convection will evolve through the evening given the line that is
expected to move through in the afternoon and early evening. For
now will keep highest PoPs in the evening time and lessen some
through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 605 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

The long term period begins with a closed mid/upper level low over
the Ohio Valley, with a trough aligned southwest through the lower
Mississippi Valley. This system will gradually shift east through
mid-week, reaching the New England/Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday
evening, providing a period of high PoPs (80-100%) across eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Short
wave ridging will briefly take hold across the area from late
Wednesday night into Thursday, with generally dry weather
expected. Another trough axis will approach from the west by
Thursday night, ushering in the next round of unsettled weather
that will last through the end of the week. Model differences grow
after mid-week, so have stayed fairly close to the blended
guidance. Temperatures will average near to above normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2024

VFR skies will be the story for the first 6 hours at most sites,
but a few showers and thunderstorms will push across the area
later this afternoon and evening. These storms could help to
bring temporary Vis and Cig restrictions to some sites. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms are possible late in the period
that could also lead to some temporary restrictions. The winds
will remain out of the south and southeast at 5 to 10 knots and
then expect winds to calm this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ