Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 242118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
518 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures are forecast for some of the deeper
  valleys tonight.

- A critically dry air mass and an increase in southeast downslope
  winds will result in increased fire danger Monday.

- Warmer conditions return for Monday before another round of
  widespread rainfall late Monday night and Tuesday. A few
  thunderstorms will be possible across the area late Monday night
  and Tuesday morning, mainly near and west of Interstate 75, and
  also over far western portions of the forecast area Tuesday
  evening.

- Temperatures cool within a few degrees of normal from Tuesday to
  the end of next week, with the threat for sub-freezing
  temperatures returning for many valley locations on Wednesday
  and Thursday nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 518 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2024

Surface high pressure is centered over Quebec late this
afternoon, but is ridging down the eastern seaboard. A large and
intense surface low is over the central high plains, being
supported by a massive upper level trough over the western CONUS.

The eastern high will continue to provide us with a very dry air
mass through Monday. As the western system slowly migrates
eastward and impinges on the high, our low level flow will pick
up out of the southeast on Monday and Monday night. Continued
warming with considerable sunshine on Monday should drop our
relative humidity below 20% on downslope southeast flow. However,
it at least looks like winds will stay below fire weather headline
criterion (with the possible exception of our highest ridges near
the VA border), negating the necessity for any watch or warning
products at this point.

A more notable increase in moisture is finally expected Monday
night as the western low reaches the Midwest and its cold front
approaches us from the west. This should eventually support rain
arriving for our western counties toward the end of the night.

For temperatures, good radiating conditions and neutral to warm
air advection should result in cold air pooling in most valleys
while ridges remain milder tonight. There is some uncertainty
concerning how effectively our less sheltered valleys can decouple
for the night as a whole, and forecast mins may need some
revision. Sunshine filtered through high clouds, downslope flow,
and a steep low level inversion to start the day will lead to
large diurnal rises on Monday. Increasing clouds and winds on
Monday night will make it more difficult for valleys to decouple
and remain decoupled. However, some valleys, particularly in
extreme eastern KY, will probably be able see winds die down and
get a more significant temperature drop at least for a time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2024

The period begins with a warm front lifting northeast through the
area. This will keep WAA advection going and warmer temperatures
across the CWA. However, with the front, PoP chances will continue
to across through the day Tuesday before a cold front crosses late
Tuesday night and showers begin to taper off. Storm chances continue
to exist but with a continued lack of forecast instability; severe
storms appear limited. However, can`t rule out a severe storm
Tuesday afternoon. The SPC has hoisted a "marginal" for severe
weather but that`s mainly focused to the west of the CWA and that`s
likely where it`ll remain. Accumulated rainfall through the duration
of the front continues to fall across the region. The highest
rainfall still looks to be along the I-75 corridor and on the
Cumberland Plateau with around 0.60" in Wayne County. QPF decreases
rapidly going northeast with around 0.20"-0.25" along the KY/WV
border. Near wind advisory criteria winds are expected along and
ahead of the front, a wind advisory may be issued for portions of
the CWA in the coming shifts as widespread strong winds are expected
ahead of the front.

Upper-level northwesterly flow and surface high pressure will begin
to nudge into the region Wednesday afternoon and the front exits and
showers begin to taper off. Temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday
will be relative cooler. Overnight lows will be colder and clear
skies will allow for frost to develop in the more sheltered valleys
across the region. Temperatures will begin to warm as southwesterly
flow ahead of another shortwave builds into the region late Thursday
into Friday. Moisture looks to be limited with this boundary which
will keep the best chances for precipitation along the I-64
corridor. Models keep the pattern active going into next weekend
with several rounds a rain possible to start April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2024

VFR conditions and winds of 10 kts or less are forecast through
the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL


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