955
FXUS63 KJKL 060809
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
409 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold
  front today.

- Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for Sunday before a
  humid and unsettled weather pattern develops for the new work
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Still a few pockets of showers around, but for the most part the
bulk of the convection is over so have tamped down the
PoPs and thunder chances through dawn in accordance with the radar
and CAMs` trends. Did also include the latest obs and tendencies
for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1022 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed this
evening as dew points have slowly recovered/risen into the mid-70s
after this afternoon`s convection. This activity is ahead of a
cold front moving west to east across central Kentucky currently.
Have adjusted PoPs and Sky grids accordingly based on radar and
satellite trends, with the remainder of the forecast largely
remaining on track.

UPDATE Issued at 720 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Trimmed PoPs and Sky cover grids down given latest observed
trends. Radar does depict a few isolated showers, and SPC
Mesoanalysis does indicate some remaining instability to support a
few showers or storms. Dew points have trended lower from the mid
to upper 70s to the lower 70s late this afternoon behind today`s
earlier convection, which supports the idea of lowering PoPs. All
other fields were initialized with the observations to ensure a
smooth blend into the forecast fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Late this afternoon, narrows ridging extended from portions of
the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast across portions of the
southeastern Conus to southeast of the mid Atlantic coast with a
stronger ridge another near the west coast of the Conus and a
general area of broad troughing south from central Canada into the
western Great Lakes to south central Conus and MS Valley. A
shortwave trough ahead of the 500 mb trough axis was working
across portions of the OH Valley at this time with associated
convection that crossed the region from late in the morning into
the afternoon having largely departed to WV and VA. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was working across the Great
Lakes region with a trailing cold front working across western and
central KY to the Arklatex and further west toward the Southern
Plains. Behind this system a sfc high extended from the Plains
toward the mid MS Valley.

This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough working across the
region will depart to the east and northeast this evening. The 500
mb trough axis will remain across Central portions of the Conus
and west of the Commonwealth through Saturday night. Height rises
are expected to rise a bit on Saturday across the southeastern
Conus and into eastern KY, while little change in mid level
heights is expected late tonight as well as on Saturday night. At
the surface, the cold front will continue east this evening across
eastern KY and work into WV and VA overnight. Behind this system,
sfc high pressure will build east into the OH Valley and settle
over portions of the OH Valley and the Appalachians to end the
period.

Ahead of the front, isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening with
chances diminishing even near the WV and VA border not longer
after midnight. Fog should form at least in the valleys late
tonight and could become rather widespread areawide following
rainfall earlier today. A cooler and drier airmass will move into
the area behind the front as the high works east into the area for
Saturday and remain in place through Saturday night.

Less humid weather for Saturday and Saturday night will be most
notable with lows falling below 70 for most areas tonight and
areawide on Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place overhead to
start the period but with the approach of an upper-level trough,
flow turns southwesterly allowing for influx of moisture. As a
result, temperatures on Monday are forecast to the warmest of the
period as highs are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s. This
coupled with warm, moist southwesterly flow, heat indices will be
approaching 100 degrees to over 100 in isolated locations.

Models continue to remain in agreement with a positively tilted
trough approaching the area. At the surface, a surface low will be
tracking through the Upper Great Lakes. Along and ahead of the
front, increasing showers and thunderstorms are likely. As the low
tracks through the Great Lakes, the front will dive southeast
through the CWA. Forecast soundings, sampled ahead of the front show
a marginally severe atmosphere. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two
but overall, pre-FROPA environment appears to be a poor supportive
environment for severe storms. As the surface low ejects northeast,
the surface boundary will extend southwest toward the Ozark Plateau.
This will set the stage for the remnants of Hurricane Beryl to ride
along the boundary and into the forecast area for the end of the
forecast period.

Overall, the period will with a break from the showers and storms
but moving into next week, periods of showers and thunderstorms will
bring much needed rain to the area. However, temperatures will
continue to hang around climatological ranges as daytime highs in
the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper-50s
to upper-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

A cold front crosses the region overnight ending chances for
showers by dawn. Winds will average 5 kts or less from the west
to northwest for the balance of the period behind the cold front.
Fog will also become a concern in the through 13Z when at IFR and
MVFR reductions will be possible at all TAF sites, but most
prevalent in the valleys. Given some drier air advecting into the
region during the rest of the night, was not especially confident
in putting the fog as prevailing, but did continue the use of some
TEMPO groups for it. Residual cloud cover may also inhibit fog
formation somewhat during this time frame, as well. SKC conditions
follow through the rest of the period from mid morning on.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF