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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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567 FXUS63 KJKL 301744 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 144 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front with showers and thunderstorms will exit southeast of the area this evening. A few storms this afternoon could produce strong wind gusts and small hail. - A short-lived break from the heat and humidity is forecast tonight through Monday night behind the cold front, quickly followed by a return of sultry conditions mid to late week. - An active period of showers and thunderstorms may occur Wednesday through Friday. The greatest probability for showers and thunderstorms appears to be on Thursday, Independence Day. Heat indices will return to near 100 degrees for many locations during this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1133 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024 The late morning update is out with minimal changes overall. The initial cold front has pushed south of Interstate 64, but this is primarily just a wind shift, with dew points remaining in the lower to middle 70s even after frontal passage. Lower dew points and thus increasingly stable air are just entering northern Kentucky near Covington and will reach and pass the area late this afternoon through the evening. UPDATE Issued at 818 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024 Precip is more plentiful than anticipated near the TN border early this morning, and the POP was raised there for this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 559 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024 A cold front is entering KY from the northwest early this morning, supported by an upper level trough over the Great Lakes headed east toward New England. Warm/moist advection ahead of the front has been helping to keep slightly elevated convection firing through the night. As heating occurs today, convection will become surface based and further increase in coverage ahead of the front. With the front moving through the forecast area during the day, this will place the highest POP in south central and southeast KY where the front arrives latest. Shear will be rather negligible, but a fair amount of instability could give some brief strong storms. The last of the thunderstorms will end in southeast KY late today or this evening. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front, with a noticeable change in air mass area wide by Monday morning. Most places are not expected to have temperatures get out of the 70s on Monday, and this will be accompanied by dew points dropping to comfortable levels in the upper 40s to mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 452 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024 The large scale flow pattern aloft at the beginning of the extended will feature a large ridge of high pressure aloft extending from the northern Great Lakes southward through the Mississippi Valley, western and central Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. A surface ridge is forecast to be in place over the eastern Great Lakes into western New England. A large trough of low pressure is progged to be in place just offshore of northern New England and moving further offshore as the ridge to the west pushes east. The northeastern trough will also have a cold front extending southwestward down the eastern seaboard and into the far southeastern CONUS and into the western and central Gulf of Mexico. Another large and well developed trough is forecast to be moving eastward across Montana, Wyoming and portions of the interior west to start the period. The upper ridge will slowly progress to the east through mid-week, as the western trough also pushes east, allowing hot and dry weather to persist. As the upper trough strengthens to our west, it will pick up speed and push the upper level ridge off to our east, likely by early Wednesday night. Once the ridge has been displaced far enough, we should see a cold front moving in from the west. This boundary will be associated with an upper trough that will also be moving eastward just north of the Canadian border. By early Wednesday evening, the surface front should be close enough to allow a few showers and storms to fire and begin moving into our northwest counties. The showers and storms will steadily increase in coverage Wednesday night, as the front moves closer. The front should finally make a solid push into our area by late Thursday morning, and will continue through the area through out the day on Thursday. The afternoon and evening hours will see widespread showers and storms around the front. The front will eventually stall, as another trough moves in from the west along the front. The combination of the trough and front will allow showers and storms to persist across eastern Kentucky the end of the forecast period early Sunday. Another increase in showers and storms is expected for very late Thursday night through Friday, as the upper trough makes a strong eastward push. The activity should finally begin to taper of heading into the weekend, as the surface boundary shears out and moisture begins to dwindle. Temperatures will generally be slightly above normal through Thursday, with daily maxes in the upper 80s to at times lower 90s on tap, as high pressure will be the primary feature in place over the region. Friday could also be a bit warmer than normal, but Saturday should finally see a cool down, as the front moves through the area, allowing cooler air to filter in on western winds. We will watch the forecast for Thursday and Friday closely, for the potential for locally heavy rainfall, as showers and storms could be robust at times. With dewpoints also forecast to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, hot and muggy conditions will be possible across the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will impact, or continue to impact all but KSYM, with this activity clearing the TAF sites by 23z this evening. This activity will bring sub-VFR conditions at times, and possibly some gusty and erratic winds under the stronger storms. Behind the cold front, VFR conditions are expected through the night and into Monday morning in all but the most sheltered deeper valleys as dry air moves into the region. At this time, fog is not expected to significantly impact TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected Monday morning through early afternoon, though it should be noted that there is some chance at low stratus clouds moving into the area from the northeast Monday morning, which may persist until burning off. There is too low confidence to mention in the TAFs at this time, and would primarily impact KSJS and possibly KJKL if it occurred. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CMC