Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
315 FXUS62 KKEY 300837 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 437 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have been hard to come by over the past few hours. Earlier, an outflow boundary looked promising as it quickly moved westward north of the island chain, but that fizzled out rapidly after managing to produce a few lightning strikes. With no rain to help cool off the island chain, most land observation sites are still recording temperatures in the mid to upper 80s even at this early hour. With dew points in the upper 70s, it is quite a sticky start to the morning. The gradient between the ridge in the western North Atlantic and the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is still maintaining moderate winds across the forecast area this morning. Marine observation platforms along the Reef are measuring winds of 10 to 15 knots. As the feature in the Bay of Campeche moves westward today, winds will trend downwards. Despite the relatively clear radar at the moment, this is expected to change rapidly over the next few hours. CIMMS Vorticity highlights a weak trough over the northern Bahamas that is forecast to shift westward towards the Peninsula today. As this trough moves makes its way to the west, it will bring a swath of deep tropical moisture to South Florida and the Keys today. Confluent flow will be realized later this morning, which in tandem with the elevated moisture, will help convection to flourish across the forecast area. Some hi-res models have a distinct line of shower development, while others have convection developing across the whole area. The one issue with the first scenario (and has happened many times before) is that the line of convection sets up just to the north or south of the island chain. The impacted area will receive inches of rainfall while the island chain sees minimal impacts. This is one possibility for a bust today. Another is that looking at forecast soundings, some drier air seems to find its way into the lower levels by later this afternoon, which could act to limit shower development. Despite these potential forecast busters, have decided to increase PoPs to 70% for today. The trough will move into the Gulf by Monday, so a similar environment will is expected to stick around through then. Rain chances will trend down as this feature loses its influence across the region beginning Monday night. Thereafter, a more normal summertime regime will set up, with east to southeast flow sustained by the high in the western North Atlantic and near normal rain chances forecast. Details about the latter half of the week are becoming a little more clear as models are trending more south in terms of the track the Hurricane Beryl will be taking. An expansive mid-level ridge centered to our northwest to north will luckily be our saving grace in terms of steering this hurricane westward instead of allowing it to shift to the north near our area. Yesterday`s thought process was that the hurricane may be close enough to cause possible Small Craft Advisories across some our coastal waters, however, with the southward trend of the system, this is looking less likely at this time. This could change, as there are still uncertainties, so make sure you stay up to date with the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 437 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche will move westward into Central America today. Breezes across the Keys will continue to relax somewhat as the system presses west. Breezes will freshen as Beryl, soon to be a hurricane, marches steadily west northwest through the Caribbean Sea Tuesday through Thursday. Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the track and future evolution of Beryl. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions in the morning are forecast to give way to more uncertain weather after sunrise. Recent guidance suggests showers will begin to form before noon, thus VCSH were added after 30/15Z. Hi-res models do not agree on the exact timing and placement of showers or thunderstorms, thus TEMPO groups are omitted at this time. Prevailing near-surface easterlies will remain just below 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 1972, Key West experienced its wettest June ever with 14.43" of rain recorded. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 81 89 82 / 70 60 60 40 Marathon 89 81 89 83 / 70 60 60 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest