518
FXUS63 KLBF 292001
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
301 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Quiet weather expected for the next 12 to 24 hours.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday evening into the
overnight hours.

- Severe storms are possible Monday with the location of greatest
threat uncertain.

- The threat for thunderstorms will continue into next week with the
greatest threat on Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure extending from the
Carolinas, west into the SW CONUS. North of this feature, broad,
low amplitude flow extended from northern California, east to
the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Within this flow, four main
features were noted. The first was a strong shortwave trough
over western portions of Lake Superior. An embedded shortwave
was present over western North Dakota. Low amplitude ridging
extended from eastern Montana, north into Alberta. Further west,
a low was located off the coast of central British Columbia
with a trough extending to the south-southeast to off the coast
of central California. At the surface, high pressure was located
over northeastern Montana. A stationary front extended from
Cheyenne, south into northeastern New Mexico, then east
northeast into central Missouri. Skies were mostly cloudy across
northern Nebraska with clear to partly cloudy skies over
southwestern Nebraska. Mainly clear skies were present across
the Sandhills. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 69
degrees at Ainsworth and O`Neill to 78 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Over the next 12 to 18 hours, the forecast area will be under
the influence of surface high pressure, which will track from
North Dakota into southern Minnesota. Look for winds to shift to
the east this evening, then southerly overnight. At the same
time, thunderstorms will develop along the stationary frontal
boundary in southeastern Colorado/SW Kansas this evening. With
west southwesterly steering winds, this activity will track to
the east northeast into western, central and eventually north
central Kansas. With a dry airmass in place and little to no
forcing aloft across the forecast area, dry conditions are
expected into the early overnight hours. However, there may be a
small chance for precipitation in the south toward daybreak
Sunday (highlighted below). Lows will be chilly with readings
ranging from the lower 50s in the north, to the upper 50s in far
SW Nebraska. Skies will generally be clear in the north and
east with more cloud cover in the south, ie. clouds associated
with convection over Kansas. Additionally, late overnight into
Sunday morning, there are indications of low level cloudiness
development over southern and southeastern portions of the
forecast area. This is a result of winds shifting to the
southeast and the onset of low level moisture advection across
SW Nebraska. By daybreak Sunday morning, there is a minor signal
for very light precipitation in the southern and southeastern
FA. Again, this seems to be a result of low level moisture
advection underneath a much drier mid level. The inherited
forecast did have a mention of precipitation Sunday AM in the
southern and southeastern FA. Based on the model solns this
morning, see no reason to deviate from this forecast. Further
north and west, low level southeasterly winds will transport BL
moisture north and west late tonight into Sunday morning with a
near saturated H85-H900 layer noted at 12z Sunday across the
eastern Panhandle and northwestern Sandhills. Once again the
inherited forecast had some low pops in these areas. Feel there
is still a threat for very light precipitation given the degree
of low level moisture transport and weak lift noted in this
layer. Conditions should dry out by midday Sunday as
temperatures trend upward. However, with expected mid and high
level cloudiness and a warm front off to the west, temperatures
will struggle to get out of the 70s Sunday. By Sunday night,
thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of Colorado
and eastern Wyoming. This area is located west of the warm front
and in an area of decent thetae advection. This activity will
transition east into the late evening and overnight hours. ATTM.
the main severe threat appears to be off to the west of the
area. Activity overnight will eventually lift east given the
favorable mid level warm air advection regime. This activity by
the time it reaches the forecast area will be elevated in nature
as the warm front will remain stationary across the panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

On Monday, the warm front will transition east, ending up in
central Nebraska by Monday afternoon. Further west, a broad
surface trough of low pressure will extend from western South
Dakota into eastern Colorado. This poses a messy setup for
thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening and makes the areal
threat for severe storms unclear right now. There will be
residual showers and thunderstorms Monday as activity lifts
across western and central Nebraska late Sunday night into
Monday morning. In the wake of this convection, the warm front
is progged to move east. How far east this feature progresses
and the degree of residual storms, will play a major role in the
location of severe storms Monday afternoon/evening. The NAM and
GFS solns this morning do develop storms off to the west of the
forecast area INVOF the surface trough Monday afternoon which
is in advance of a strong mid level shortwave trough of low
pressure. This activity will eventually move into western
portions of the forecast area Monday afternoon then push into
central Nebraska Monday evening. Mid level dynamics and shear
are favorable for severe storms Monday afternoon/night. However
location of these will be highly problematic, with the location
of low level features (warm front, dryline, surface trough)
uncertain attm. For now, will handle the thunderstorm threat
with scattered pops and hit the uncertainty aspect of this setup
in the HWO and social media posts. A cold front will push
through the area on Monday night with a limited threat for
storms/severe weather on Tuesday. By Wednesday, another northern
stream, mid-level trough of low pressure will lift across the
northern Rockies. This will force a cold front through the
forecast area Wednesday night with a decent threat for
thunderstorms. Moisture and deep layer shear will be favorable
enough for severe storms Wednesday evening. However, attm.
location and timing are uncertain. High pressure aloft will
build into the southwestern CONUS toward the end of next week.
This will place the forecast area in a more northerly flow
aloft. This will lead to drier conditions with seasonal to
slightly below normal temperatures across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of western and
north central Nebraska through tonight. North winds will
diminish this afternoon and gradually switch around to the
southeast tonight. No thunderstorm activity is expected through
tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor