561
FXUS64 KLCH 220427
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1127 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Expecting a rather stable and fair weather night across the
region which is reflected in the current forecast. No changes
needed at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Ridging aloft is still centered over south Texas, with a ridge
extending across LA and into Mississippi. At the surface, high
pressure stretches across the Gulf Coast. The weather today and
tonight will be hot and dry as high temperatures continue to be
several degrees above normal for this time of year.

Sunday will be similar to today as the ridge starts to slowly
shift eastward. Even with the change, our temperatures will remain
stubbornly in the 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s,
keeping the muggy weather around for a bit longer. By Monday we
will start to see a change to our forecast as the peak of the
ridge will be east of our area. The weaker ridge will allow for
more showers to develop and help our temperatures decrease. No
relief from the heat yet, but change will be coming soon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The start of next week will be a welcome change as a diffuse cold
front will move across the region then stall in the Gulf of
Mexico. With this front, we will see an increase in rain chances,
lower dew points,and temperatures. The best of the three will be
the highs dropping into the 80s, followed by the dropping dew
points, which will fall into the 60s.

Behind the front, a dry continental airmass will settle overhead
and remain in place through the rest of the forecast period. This
dry air will keep our high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s
with lows in the 60s. Overall, next week will be much nicer than
the previous few weeks.

Further south, in the Gulf, we are continuing to monitor a broad
area of low pressure that the NHC has given a 60% chance of
developing over the next 7 days. Models have been inconsistent
with this system`s strength or general track. The trends have been
for the main threat from any development to be to the east of our
area, but everyone should keep a close eye on the forecast for the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Not much change in the thinking as far as the aviation forecast
goes. High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail during
the period. Mainly light winds and clear skies through the night.
Some patchy fog will be possible mainly between 22/09z-13z and
will have a tempo group with MVFR visibility to cover that. On
Sunday, no significant shower activity is expected with mainly
south winds at less than 10 knots and VFR conditions.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure offshore will continue the trend of hot, dry and
calm conditions. Seas are below 2 feet and will stay there through
the weekend. In addition winds will be light and variable. The
pattern will start to change around midweek as a front moves
offshore, increasing winds.

In the Gulf the NHC has a 60% region for development of a
tropical cyclone. There is little consistency between individual
models or model run-to-run consistency. It will be important to
keep a close eye on the forecast for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  89  73  90 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  73  92  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  75  91  74  91 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07