741
FXUS64 KLCH 201742
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Hot and dry conditions to continue through the short term.

A ridge aloft is over the southern plains and northwest gulf
coast this morning while weak high pressure at the surface is
stretched over the mid Mississippi Valley and northern gulf. This
will produce yet another day with warm temperatures with very
little chance for rain. The chance is not zero, but very unlikely
at any given point. Winds will be light.

During the weekend the ridge aloft will gradually shift east and
be roughly overhead Sunday. No real changes in the forecast are
anticipated day to day from today through Sunday. The only
noticeable change will be the surface ridge moving to the
Atlantic coast. This will allow a modest increase in southerly
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The long range continues dry with above normal diurnal temperature
trending in the lower 90s to start off the work week Monday. Slack
upper level flow above the Gulf will allow broad ridging to extend
to the surface with light southerlies in place. Therefore, dry
conditions can be anticipated for the better part of the area. The
case remains the same Tuesday with the exception of slightly higher
signals for some low level moisture convergence which could squeeze
out a few afternoon isolated thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trof over the Four Corners regions becomes
more positive oriented as the northern portion of the wave elongates
into the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning driving a cold front
southward across the plains toward the Gulf Coast. Winds will shift
northerly and keep north to northeast components through the
remainder of the forecast. A very large area of subsidence builds
above the Rocky Mountains in response to the aforementioned trof
evolution. By Thursday, the frontal pattern shifts offshore,
although there is not significant amount of cold air advection
expected. Further to this, the strength of the frontal pattern is
far from resolved, so adjustments to this pattern near the tail end
of the outlook as it relates to troughing that is forecast to slowly
deepen in the southern Gulf and Central America are not out of the
realm of possibilities. That said, a slight lowering trend toward
more climatological norms in the mid the upper 80s is expected
through the mid week.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue for most of the TAF period with clear
skies and light winds. Around 09Z to 14Z patchy fog will be
forming across the coastal terminals, especially at ARA and LFT
where visibility may drop to IFR/LIFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High pressure situated over the region will continue a trend of
hot, dry and clear conditions with 1 to 2 foot seas through the
weekend. Early next week, a frontal system developing over the
central US will tighten the pressure gradient, bringing about
elevated winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  75  92  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  75  93  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  76  93  74  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14