Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
069 FXUS64 KLCH 240339 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1039 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 No significant changes made to the inherited grid package. Current temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are not expected to drop too much lower than that tonight, before soaring into the mid to upper 90s tomorrow. With dewpoints expected to be in the mid to upper 70s, max heat indices will be in the 100 to 110 range. A Heat Advisory was issued for a few Parishes in central to south central Louisiana, however it is possible that it will be expanded to other Parishes and Counties in the CWA. 87 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Surface high pressure is centered over our region, with partly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the lower to mod 90s. Heat indices are in the 99-105 F range. A couple of isolated showers or thunderstorms are seen in Cameron Parish and St. Mary Parish. Tomorrow will be a couple of degrees warmer than today, and with that, heat advisories (minimum criteria is 108 F apparent temperature) have been issued for portions of central and south central Louisiana. It may need to be extended across the remainder of central Louisiana and east Texas. That will be re-evaluated later tonight. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will be in Acadiana with a 20 to 30 percent chance, while the remainder of the area will be less than 20 percent. Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday, with warm temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily in Acadiana. Overnight lows in the short term forecast period will be in the mid to upper 70s, so if you can, stay indoors and stay cool! && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The weather pattern basically stays the same in the long term. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s, flirting with heat advisory thresholds each afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day, and the threat will extend further west of Acadiana into southwest Louisiana as well. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR is expected to prevail amid the continuing influence of SFC high pressure stretching west along the Gulf Coast and ridging aloft extending from the Four Corners into the NW Gulf. A convective cluster and/or its outflow associated with a back- door front sinking across the SE CONUS may combine with sea/bay breezes across Acadiana to create enhanced TSTM chances at KLFT/KARA late tomorrow afternoon into early evening as depicted by some CAM guidance and the HREF. For this forecast cycle, introduced VCTS at both of these terminals and will continue to monitor guidance trends. 13 && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A persistent pattern is setting up for this week in the coastal waters, with light southerly flow expected through the time frame. I extended the coastal flood advisory one more day into Monday. High tides will be near or just above the advisory threshold of 1.5 ft MHHW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 96 75 97 / 0 20 0 20 LCH 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 20 LFT 77 94 78 94 / 0 30 10 40 BPT 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ029-033-044- 045-055-152>154-252>254. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ073-074- 252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ615. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...13