359
FXUS64 KLIX 202045
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
345 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The pressure gradient over the region will gradually relax through
Friday as the tropical system (Alberto) over the west Gulf continues
to push westward. Sfc high pressure will build into the area from
the east and northeast by late Friday.

For rest of today, scattered convection is over the southwest
zones and will continue to develop this attn and push west and
southwest, with cell movement about 20-25 mph. Activity should
diminish this evening with loss of heating. There may still be a
few showers that move ashore southeast LA coast late tonight as
shown by recent guidance given the favorable moist low levels and
sfc convergence. Otherwise, mild/warm overnight lows in the 70s to
near 80 as the winds will remain stirring overnight near 5-15 mph
at times.

Friday, still sufficient low level moisture for mostly sunny to
partly sunny skies as low level cumulus forms by late morning and
early aftn. Low chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm,
mainly south of I-10, given the warm highs in the lower 90s and
PWATs to near 1.6 inches. Max heat indices are forecast up to
around 100-105. Easterly winds will not be as strong as today to
about 10-15 mph, with lighter east winds further inland. Friday
night, fairly quiet night in store with low temps just a bit lower
owing to a drier airmass and lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper ridging will continue to build westward, and be centered
near the New Mexico-Arizona border on Sunday, where it will take
up residence for next week. For the weekend, and potentially
through Monday, there will be a southeastward extension of the
ridge into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Any convective development
over the weekend should remain on the isolated side and be
limited to primarily the afternoon hours from about Interstate 10
southward. As we move into early next week, the upper flow across
the area becomes northwesterly, which opens up the potential for
shortwaves moving through and resulting in developing clusters of
thunderstorms. PWAT values will be in excess of 2 inches for the
middle of next week, likely resulting in storms capable of
producing heavy rainfall.

Daily high temperatures through the weekend and into next week are
expected to reach up into the mid to upper 90s for inland areas
and in the upper 80s and lower 90s for areas along the coast and
to the south of the I-10 corridor. Apparent, "feels like", heat
index temperatures will potentially rise to be near 110 degrees
during peak diurnal heating during the forecasted period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Most of the generally weak convection has moved off to the south
and southwest, with activity near KNEW, KMSY, KHUM, and KBTR. Best
chance of TSRA look to be near KHUM in the next 1-4 hours. Mainly
MVFR cigs around KNEW at this time, but should improve a bit
later this afternoon to VFR clouds. With the loss of heating in
the evening hours, the cumulus clouds will diminish. Could be
some light fog in a few spots but by and large maintained VFR at
this time, given the low level winds will tend to keep low levels
mixed.

Easterly winds of 15 knots or greater will impact terminals south
of Interstate 10...KGPT/KNEW/KMSY/KHUM through the late aftn
hours. Lighter winds expected tonight. Mainly easterly flow again
Friday to about 8-12 kt and a few higher gusts possible with
generally scattered cumulus and a low threat of a shower but kept
out for now in the TAFs given low probabilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The forecast is generally on track for winds and seas to slowly
wind down through Friday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Will let current small craft advisories ride for now, but with a
slight extension in time for GMZ555 and GMZ575 into late evening.
Winds could remain around 15 knots for a good portion of Friday,
but beyond that point, should be a much more benign period into
early next week, outside of the potential for thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  69  94 /   0  10   0  10
BTR  75  96  74  97 /   0  20   0  10
ASD  75  94  72  94 /  10  10   0  10
MSY  80  92  77  93 /  10  30   0  10
GPT  75  92  73  92 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  73  95  72  96 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ068.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ058-
     070-076-078-080-082-084-086.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for LAZ058-070-076-
     078-080-082-084-086.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for LAZ060-066>069-
     077-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532-
     536-538-557-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ550-552-
     555-570-572-575.

MS...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ086.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for MSZ086.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for MSZ087-088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ536-
     538-557-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARS
LONG TERM....WLC
AVIATION...ARS
MARINE...ARS