Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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209 FXUS64 KLIX 241110 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 610 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The main story today will be the heat. Upper level ridging will continue to spread eastward along the Gulf Coast today. Low level moisture will be on the increase today as well, which coupled with the hot afternoon temperatures will lead to heat index values to climb into the 108-110F range outside of the immediate Louisiana Coast. That said, there could be some late afternoon relief in the from of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, however, subsidence should keep most of this activity low-topped and rather low in coverage. Outside of the heat advisory for much of the region, wanted to focus on another Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal Hancock Co., MS. Water levels followed closer to the P-ETTS guidance yesterday and today should be roughly about the same, so around high tide expect some minor water rises in those known low-lying coastal trouble spots respectively. Tonight, if we do get a little rain, some shallow ground fog may be possible, but given the low coverage didn`t add to the forecast now. Outside of the rain and wet grounds, there could be some moisture pooling along a weak surface boundary that will move in and stall across the region later this evening before it begins to dissipate. As it fades to a remnant trough on Tuesday, it will be just enough to interact with the diurnal cycle to help generate a few more isolated to scattered showers/storms on Tuesday as well. Similarly, coverage will be on the limited side. Otherwise, we`ll likely need another heat advisory on Tuesday as temps will reach thresholds likely before any convection can develop. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 On Wednesday, more numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated as another surface boundary and parent upper level trough begins to slide southward on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge across the Southwest U.S. This will likely help keep the heat in check slightly (it will still be hot, but largely not advisory hot). This weak surface boundary does stall across the Gulf Coast region and with a series of upper level impulses likely to interact with peak daytime heating as well as mesoscale boundaries (outflow or lake/sea Breeze). So, continued mid to higher-end POPs from this point through the end of the workweek. Going into the upcoming weekend, the upper level ridge spreads east again, which signals more heat for the southeast. Our region will be in easterly flow aloft with a few inverted upper shortwaves moving overhead. Carried POPs naturally to account for this, but the question is how soon can convection develop and will it impact day time highs and max heat index values? We will continue to monitor this through the week in case there may be a need for additional heat advisories later in the forecast period. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions expected today with light and variable winds through the forecast period. That said, some afternoon convection will develop leading to SHRA or TS potential respectively. Covered this with PROB30s for now. Otherwise, will need to watch terminals along and west of I55 for potential fog development later in the period, especially BTR, MCB, and HUM...and especially if we get rain over these locations this afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Surface winds should remain southerly and be mostly light to moderate leading to mostly benign marine conditions through the period. A front will move toward the region early to mid week and perhaps another late in the week, which will help keep the pressure gradient on the lower side (outside diurnal upticks in wind across the MS Sound). Otherwise, convection will be possible especially during the overnight, which could locally increase winds and seas. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 74 95 74 / 40 20 50 20 BTR 98 78 98 77 / 40 20 50 10 ASD 96 77 95 77 / 50 30 50 10 MSY 95 79 94 79 / 30 30 50 10 GPT 94 77 95 78 / 40 20 40 20 PQL 97 77 98 77 / 40 20 30 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF