225
FXUS64 KLIX 222013
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
313 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Biggest concern in the short term will be heat. Mid and upper
level high pressure will keep convection generally suppressed
tomorrow and through the first part of the work week. A slight
increase in moisture could be enough to support isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms Monday and Tuesday, but
they`ll be very hit or miss. With only scattered cloud decks and
little in the way of rain-cooled outflow to cool things down,
afternoon temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s most
places tomorrow and into the mid to upper 90s most places Monday
and Tuesday.

Looking at the dewpoints and resultant apparent temperature
forecasts, a few places mainly on the west side of Lake Maurepas
will be close to hitting heat advisory criteria tomorrow. Given
the small areal extent and low confidence, though, will hold off
on issuing one for now. The possibility of a heat advisory looks
higher on Monday and Tuesday when afternoon temperatures will
drive the apparent temperature to 108 degrees or higher across a
much larger portion of the area. Exact areas and timing will need
to be narrowed down, but heat headlines look likely for at least a
portion of the area by Monday.

The only other thing to really discuss in the short term is the
continued minor flooding during high tide around Bay St. Louis and
Waveland. Due to the spring tide cycle with large tide ranges,
high tide levels will remain elevated for a few more days even
though winds have dropped off substantially. High tide looks
likely to be near or above minor flood stage at the Waveland
Yacht Club gage through the high tide cycle Monday, and possibly
even Tuesday. A coastal flood advisory has been reissued for
southern Hancock County through 7 PM tomorrow evening, but will
likely need to be extended. Highest water will, of course, occur
around high tide. At the gage, the high tide is forecast to occur
around 1pm tomorrow, then about 45 minutes later each day Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

By Wednesday, medium-range ensemble guidance suggests that the
ridging over us during the first half of the week will break down
and shift to the west. Troughing over the Ohio Valley will cause the
breakdown of the ridge and put us in northerly flow Wednesday and
Thursday. The breakdown of the ridge will allow the subsidence to
depart with it and increase rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday.
The rain will help us "cool" down to the low 90s instead of the
upper 90s.

Ensembles seem to agree that ridging will build right back in into
the weekend. The suppression from the ridge will serve to heat us
back up and shunt rain chances again. So, expect a return to the
blistering heat just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period under the influence
of high pressure with light winds and clear to partly cloudy
skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Under the influence of high pressure, generally benign conditions
are expected across the coastal waters. Light winds and
waves/seas less than 2 ft are expected through at least Tuesday,
with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across the outer waters. By Wednesday and into the latter
part of the work week, the high will shift eastward and winds will
strengthen just a bit into the 10 to 15 knot range at times
through the end of the week. Increasing moisture will also lead to
higher higher chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  95  73  95 /   0  10   0  30
BTR  76  98  78  98 /   0  10   0  30
ASD  73  96  76  96 /   0  10   0  30
MSY  77  94  78  95 /   0  20   0  40
GPT  75  93  77  95 /   0  10   0  30
PQL  73  96  76  98 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM