484
FXUS65 KLKN 261957
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1257 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers will increase in
converge across central and northeastern Nevada this afternoon.
Erroneous, yet strong wind gusts could result from collapsing
storms. Dry weather returns tomorrow and remains through the rest
of the week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Thursday night.

Current radar and satellite shows thunderstorm development across
areas east of the eastern Eureka county line. To the west, a mix
of sun and clouds as daytime heating continues. An expanding
cumulus field also exists across the area. Model soundings and
other models and ensembles show an environment favorable for
thunderstorm development this afternoon and into this evening.
DCAPE values of 1300-1400J/kg may contribute to any erroneous
outflow gusts and downdrafts from collapsing thunderstorms.
Precipitable water looks to vary between 0.75 and 1.00 inches,
which will favor wet storms for the majority of the area. Strong
afternoon westerly winds across Humboldt county, along with
significant drying behind a frontal passage will lead to critical
fire weather conditions across fire weather zone 437 this
afternoon and evening. Relative Humidity percentages as low as
10-15% combined with west to southwest winds 15-25 with gusts as
high as 35 mph have resulted in this critical fire weather.
Elsewhere, fire weather zone 424 encompassing southeastern
Humboldt county as well as northern and Central Nevada, has
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon with slightly
higher RH percentages and lower winds. Highs this afternoon are
expected to reach the upper 80s and low 90s, with current
conditions a few degrees away from that mark. Lows this evening
are forecasted in the 50s.

Thursday, as an upper level trough, located north of the state,
progresses eastward, and with it a mid to upper level jet max.
Elevated winds gusting up to 30 mph across Elko county, and RH
percentages as low as 15-20 % have led to an area of elevated fire
weather condtions across portions of eastern Elko county and
White Pine. Mainly dry condtions are expected across Nevada
Thursday, with the exception being across portions of eastern
White Pine county, as morning showers and thunderstorms linger
into the afternoon. Highs are forecasted in in the 80s across much
of the area, with cooler condtions across northern Nevada near
the boarder. Lows Thursday night will drop into the 40s and 50s.


.LONG TERM...Friday through Thursday

Quieter conditions look to return for the end of the week as both
the upper trough and upper ridge shift back east leaving the
Silver State under near zonal flow aloft and slowly rising heights
as Summer returns to NE Nevada. However by Sunday upper flow will
again shift to be out of the SW as a northern stream upper trough
make land fall over BC Canada. This trough as it slides east will
try to push a front into N NV Sunday evening, but models show the
front stalling south of the I-80 corridor before lifting back
north Monday. This will give far northern Nevada a low 10% to 20%
chance of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms for the NV/ID/OR
border. As it stands models favor more dry than wet storms over
the NV side of the border, so will need to watch winds and RH for
possible fire weather conditions. After Monday, upper flow trends
more zonal as the upper trough departs eastward, allowing for
another quiet spell with slowly rising heights. Temperatures will
be quick to recover Friday and Saturday as highs reach back into
the mid 80s to mid 90s. Depending on haw far south the front will
make it Sunday night, highs Monday and Tuesday will be upper 70s
to upper 80s across northern Nevada, while central NV remains in
the mid 80s to mid 90s. Wednesday and Thursday highs return to the
mid 80s to mid 90s area wide. Lows will follow a similar trend,
for Friday and Saturday low range in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Sunday and Monday, low drop in to the mid 40s across the north
while lows remain in the 50s to mid 60s across central NV. Tuesday
through Thursday low recover back into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Winds for the extended will be generally out of the west to WSW at
5 MPH to 15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 25 MPH through
Sunday. Winds will pick up across the north Sunday evening and
Monday as the front moves through, with W to WNW winds of 10 MPH
to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible, with lighter winds
returning again for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible this evening for
all terminals as a moist monsoon-like mid level flow interacts
with a upper trough and associated cool front. Primary hazards
will be strong gusty outflow winds, lightning, and brief heavy
rainfall. There is a chance of a brief drop to MVFR or to IFR
conditions should a storm impact a terminal. Out side of storms,
winds will be elevated this evening out of the W to WSW, then
shifting to the WNW overnight at 15KT to 25KT with a few gusts up
to 35KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have begun this
afternoon but will increase in coverage later in the afternoon
for central and northeastern Nevada. RH values will be slightly
higher this time, however is expected to start out dry, but mix a
little faster as RH values are at 20-30%. Zone 425 and 470 are
expected to have the highest chances (between 40-50%) in the
afternoon while zone 427 426 and eastern half of 469 have chances
between 25-40%. Chances heading westward drop off to below 17%
quickly for the remaining zones. Zone 437 is expected to be in
critical fire weather condition as RH values drop below 15% along
with gusty west- southwest winds in the afternoon to evening
hours. A cold front and associated upper- level disturbance will
push into the state across northern Nevada, lowering temperatures,
however drier air moves in behind, lowering humidity as well as
most of the moisture gets pushed out of the region Thursday. Dry
conditions and warmer temperatures back into the 90s return Friday
and Saturday with another upper- level disturbance acting to
increase winds across the state along and chances of returning
showers/thunderstorms along the Idaho/Nevada border on Sunday.



&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening Humboldt
County-Quinn.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening Southeastern Elko
County.

&&

$$

91/98/98/91