Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
916 FXUS65 KLKN 160941 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 241 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A strong early fall low pressure system will have a multi-pronged impact on the the region early in the work week. Accumulating shower and thunderstorm activity over central Nevada and Humboldt county Monday morning will become more widespread by Monday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front strong southerly winds over the region have prompted a wind advisory in White Pine and northeastern Nye county where sustained winds of 25-30 mph with gusts between 40-45 mph are possible Monday afternoon. While the cold front will push through the state slowly over the course of Monday evening and Monday night precipitation will linger into the morning hours on Tuesday. 0.5-0.75 inch accumulations are possible in Humboldt, Lander, Eureka, Elko and extreme western Nye county through Tuesday afternoon. White Pine will end up on the drier end with only 0.05 -0.20 inches possible. Higher elevations around 8,500 feet and above should see snowfall with this system. Behind the front colder temperatures on northwesterly winds will drop overnight lows Tuesday morning into the 30s for much of the region. && .SHORT TERM...A very active start to the week as a lumbering but strong low pressure system will impact the Silver State with high winds, a wide range of precipitation accumulations, and ultimately colder temperatures. Monday morning precipitation over mainly the western extents of the CWA will increase in coverage into central and northeastern Nevada over the course of the day. Morning accumulations ranging from 0.25-0.5 inches are possible in Humboldt, Lander, and western Nye counties. As the low moves into the State by early afternoon better moisture availability and vorticity values seen previously over western and west central Nevada will become more widespread across the region. Ultimately, accumulation values will come down to how slow or fast the low progresses across the state though model guidance currently does not promote a speedy transit to the east. The tight pressure gradient of the system will produce strong southerly flow, especially across central and eastern Nevada on Monday. Sustained winds of 25-30 mph with gusts between 40-45 mph are possible Monday afternoon in White Pine and northeastern Nye counties where a Wind Advisory will be in effect from 10AM Monday morning until 8PM Monday evening. Along and ahead of the boundary convection is possible with CAPE values reaching into the 500 J/kg range and LI values of -4 signaling favorable instability. Model guidance Monday evening features lapse rates over Elko county as high as 9.5C/km and SPC has eastern portions of the county in Marginal Risk for potential strong winds accompanying storms in the northeast portion of the state. The associated cold front will slowly drag west to east across the CWA Monday evening. Behind the front precipitation will continue into early Tuesday afternoon though the convective component looks to diminish with frontal passage. Brisk north-westerlies in the post frontal regime of the system will drop overnight lows Tuesday morning down into the low to mid 30s for the eastern half of the state. Humboldt county lows will be slightly warmer in the low to mid 40s as post frontal winds there will have subsided by Tuesday AM. Higher elevations in the CWA will see snowfall in locations above approximately 8,500 feet. Most snowfall accumulations will be modest in the trace to 4 inch range though ranges in western Nye county could see significantly more depending on how quickly the low moves into and out of the state and how long available moisture remains over western Nye county through Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday A trough of low pressure will bring rain showers for our area on Wednesday and Thursday as it deepens and moves east. Isolated thunderstorms possible for eastern White Pine County on Thursday. Drier conditions from Friday until next Monday as the low weakens and moves out of the area. Winds will be light, with a dry west to northwesterly flow over NV. A warming trend will occur from Thursday to Sunday, with temperatures rising 3-5 degrees on average each day until Sunday. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION...An upper level low moving in over NV today will bring periods of rain, possibly heavy at time to KWMC KBAM KEKO AND KTPH. There is a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms today across the region with gusty outflow winds to 50 mph possible. Strongest winds will be across east-central NV this afternoon and evening, with southerly winds of 15 to 25kt gusting to 45kts at KELY. Thunderstorms diminish later this evening with scattered showers lingering over portions of northern NV, including KWMC and KBAM tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER...A strong pressure gradient associated with a low pressure system impacting Nevada on Monday will bring strong southerly winds to the region out ahead of an advancing cold front. High wind speeds prompt a Wind Advisory in northeastern Nye and White Pine county where 25-30 sustained winds are possible with gusts into the 40-45 mph range. Low relative humidity will not be an issue as the system increases moisture availability across the state Monday, but pre-existing fires such as the Broom Canyon Fire straddling the Nye/White Pine county line in east- central Nevada may see potential extreme fire behavior Monday afternoon associated with the high winds. The Wind Advisory will be in place from 10AM Monday morning through 8PM Monday evening. A brief respite from wet, windy weather takes place on Tuesday before another storm system moves into the area from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm activity is possible with this system as well though dry thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time as the moisture profile for the area is sufficient enough to produce another round of wetting rains. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening Northeastern Nye County...White Pine County. && $$ 99/96/96/99