Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
336 FXUS65 KLKN 080928 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 228 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1248 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 * Red flag warning across central Nevada Tuesday afternoon * Fire Weather Watch Wednesday for northeastern and east-central Nevada * Near triple digit heat in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada this weekend will create moderate risk for heat-related illnesses && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 1248 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Southwest flow over the region separates a low pressure system to the west over northern CA and a large high pressure system building over the desert southwest. The gradient between the two systems will be tight enough Tuesday afternoon to create strong winds and fire weather conditions over central NV. Wednesday the ridge and associated HPC encroach further on the SW CONUS as the low pressure system to the west begins its migration further inland. The low pressure system transitions to an open trough over CA by Wednesday morning and will drag its axis across northern NV by Wednesday evening. The majority of instability and associated moisture with this system remains well north of the area keeping precipitation out of the forecast. Biggest impacts to the region will be a slight dip in temperatures Wednesday and Thursday and a broader area of fire weather concern over northeastern and east- central NV Wednesday evening as the trough moves through the state. Zonal flow in the northern flank of the persistent high pressure system takes residence over the state Thursday through the weekend as the system maintains position and strengthens over the SW CONUS. Temperatures Saturday into next Monday are running about 5 degrees above normal creating moderate heat risk for those sensitive to hot temperatures. Into next week model disagreement exists on scenarios involving the continued positioning of the high pressure dome or a weather pattern changing low pressure system dragging across the Great Basin next Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM continues to under perform on afternoon wind speeds so the pattern continues of enhancing wind field grids for both sustained winds and wind gusts for both Tuesday and Wednesday from 18Z until 03Z. Confidence is better for building hot temperatures this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions at all sites through the next 24 hours under mostly sunny skies. Gusts of 20-30 knots are expected at all terminals this afternoon and early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in place for zones 425 426 and 427 due to wind gusts over 30 mph and single digit minimum relative humidities. Fire Weather Watches have been issued for zones 425 438 469 and 470 for Wednesday due to gusty winds and low humidities. Conditions are expected to return to just elevated status on Thursday and remain there for the rest of the week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ425>427. Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM Wednesday morning to 8 PM PDT Wednesday evening NVZ425, NVZ438, NVZ469, and NVZ470. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...96 FIRE WEATHER...96