906
FXUS63 KLMK 241448
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1048 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   The Heat Index may rise above 100 degrees on Tuesday, especially
    west of the I-65 corridor.

*   Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible late Tuesday
    afternoon into the evening.

*   Widespread shower and scattered storm chances Wednesday,
    bringing much needed rain to the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A break from the humidity today as dew points drop into the 50s
under blue skies. High pressure sliding from Illinois to Ohio will
provide us with a light north breeze, though strong summer sunshine
will still pull temperatures generally into the 85-90 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Upper trough crossing the eastern Great Lakes this hour will
continue heading southeast today. Last night`s cold front and
associated showers have cleared the region, with GOES Sounder data
showing much drier air now across central KY and southern IN. Still
seeing some patches of fog on satellite this morning, mainly in our
counties surrounding the Cumberland Region. Given that drier air
pushing in, do not believe this will last through daybreak, but will
adjust forecast as needed.

Model precipitable water forecasts push those values under 1" today,
which, as mentioned in the previous discussion, will be a welcome
break after more than a week of muggy conditions. Temperatures
should get up into the mid to upper 80s for most, though BWG and SDF
likely will be around 90.

Tonight, winds will become light/variable once again as we switch
around to a more southerly direction for Tuesday, and subsequent
quick warmup. That should allow temperatures to stay up west of I-
65, mainly in the mid to upper 60s, whereas points to the east
likely will see more lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

Ridging aloft will weaken and surface high pressure will drift
southeast of the region, leading to southwesterly flow and returned
moisture into the region. Dew points will rise into the upper 60s
and low 70s. With temperatures forecasted in the low-mid 90s, this
will bring heat indices into the upper 90s and low 100s (west of I-
65). Tuesday will be the hottest and muggiest day of this long term
period. A weak shortwave trough will enter the region Tuesday
afternoon, bringing weak forcing to present moisture and
instability. Would expect to see some isolated to scattered
convective initiation in the later afternoon and into the evening.
Lapse rates and shear suggest unorganized summertime convection, so
the main threats would be gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

Troughing will deepen over the Midwest and send a cold front through
the Ohio Valley. These features will bring better forcing over the
region where ample moisture is present. PWATs are forecasted to be
on the higher side of climatology around 2.0 inches. Coupled with a
well saturated column, we should be able to get a widespread 0.25-
0.75 inches of rain on Wednesday, with locally higher totals
possible. Wednesday evening, troughing will begin to push eastward
and the `cold` front will also push through the area.

Thursday - Thursday Night...

Behind the front, drier and cooler conditions will build into the
region. Near normal highs/lows with clear skies and light winds will
allow for a pleasant day.

Friday - The Weekend...

By the weekend, high pressure will shift east, and southwesterly
flow will bring returned moisture. Above normal temperatures are
expected once again on Friday and Saturday. Troughing over the
northern Plains will deepen and move eastward through the weekend,
resulting in another system bringing increased chances for showers
and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Winds generally will be from the northwest and north and bring in
drier air today. Winds will lighten up again in the evening hours.
VFR conditions expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...RJS