Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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806 FXUS64 KLUB 290836 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 336 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The upper-level ridge will be centered over North Texas today which means the heat continues across our forecast area. However, southeast surface winds will actually keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday (upper 90s to lower 100s) but it will also transport surface moisture back into the forecast area hence it`ll be slightly muggier today as well. This will lead to heat index values of 105-107 across the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle where a Heat Advisory remains in effect from 1 pm until 8 pm. Precipitation chances will be slightly higher today than yesterday across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains where better monsoonal moisture will be located. Initially a capping inversion around 15,000 feet will keep the area dry however as a weak disturbance lifts north on the west side of the ridge this capping should erode. While forcing will be weak across our area, temperatures near convective temperatures should be sufficient for a few showers/thunderstorms to develop across this region. With cloud bases near 10,000 ft the threat for a few stronger wind gusts will be possible. Unfortunately, with southerly steering flow in place across the region this activity will drift to the north leading to a dry and warm night for most of the area with low temperatures only dropping back into the 70s. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Outflow from the overnight storms to our north in the Texas Panhandle will drift south and enter our forecast area Sunday morning. There may be enough moisture in the atmosphere to get a few showers to develop Sunday morning. The outflow boundaries will also have to be watched as we head into the afternoon as they will serve as a focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well. Latest soundings indicate surface based CAPE around 1000 J/kg but with very little shear hence slow moving storms with the potential for gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary concern. These outflows along with southeasterly surface winds will keep high temperatures on Sunday mostly in the 90s. The center of the ridge will remain parked over North Texas through Monday evening before eventually sliding east and becoming elongated over the southeastern U.S.. Despite decreasing heights aloft overall thickness values will remain steady and slightly increase as we head into Tuesday. This will allow temperatures to warm a degree or two both Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures near and above the century mark area wide by Tuesday once again. Lee surface troughing should also develop on Monday and remain there through the middle of the week which will bring a return of southwesterly winds and slightly lower dewpoints. Fortunately, when the ridge slides east this will also allow monsoonal moisture to move back over at least portions of the forecast area Tuesday through the end of next week. Hence each afternoon and evening the South Plains and far southern Texas Panhandle will have a chance at precipitation. By the end of the week and into next weekend another ridge will slide over the southwestern U.S. which will place us within northwest flow aloft. This will help to lower temperatures back closer to average for this time of year as well as increase precipitation chances across the entire forecast area. /WI && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Southerly winds this morning will back to the southeast later this morning and become breezy through the afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...58