643
FXUS64 KLUB 110536
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1236 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Radar imagery from this morning revealed a remnant MCV spinning over
the southern Texas Panhandle. Light shower activity and weak
thunderstorms continue to linger around the surface low, especially
along the eastern and northern flanks due to deformation and ample
low level moisture. Midlevel satellite water vapor imagery and RAP
analysis shows the deepening upper low across eastern New Mexico and
midlevel moisture creeping back into southeast New Mexico. Winds
will increase aloft with better forcing and slightly better shear
for storms this afternoon and evening. At the surface, skies have
begun to clear behind the MCV with temperatures warming into the mid
70s. With ample low level moisture in place, a field of cumulus
clouds have developed across the southern South Plains where skies
cleared out earlier this morning. Meanwhile, where the morning
showers continue to persist, temperatures a bit slower to warm.
Early afternoon showers and storms are possible along this
differential heating boundary, specifically across the northern
South Plains. A few of these storms may become strong to marginally
severe with weak instability of less than 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
little bulk shear across this specific area. The main attention
getter for storms today will be the shortwave associated with a weak
surface low in eastern New Mexico that has already helped to
intitate storms along the mountains near Ruidoso. With the surface
troughing and the deepening low with increased flow aloft, these
storms are expected to maintain strength and impact the southern
portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains later this afternoon
and evening. Large hail up to golf ball size may be possible with
some of the stronger updrafts, but the main threat will be damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph as the storms become linear and develop into
a potential MCS late tonight as they pass over the I-27/US 87
corridor near Lubbock and southward. Storms are expected to be
moving slightly faster with the increased steering flow aloft, but
all in all storm motion will likely be easterly at 10 to 20 mph.
With the recent rainfall last night and this morning, additional
rainfall with moderate to heavy rain rates this afternoon and
evening may lead to flooding concerns.

Precipitation chances will end from west to east through tomorrow
morning, but there is a slight chance for some lingering shower
activity off the Caprock tomorrow afternoon as the surface low
pushes eastward into northwest Texas. Breaking skies tomorrow will
help to give way to warmer temperatures into the 80s, especially
across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and South Plains where
precipitation chances into tomorrow are much less. Elsewhere,
temperatures may be a bit trick and struggle to warm above the 70s
with lingering cloud cover due to continued shower and thunderstorm
activity (as mentioned above).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A general warming and drying trend will take place across the region
beginning on Wednesday as the slow-moving upper trough finally exits
to our east and a relatively compact upper level ridge axis
establishes over the Four Corners region. Dry and mostly sunny
conditions will therefore return on Wednesday as large scale
subsidence spreads overhead, but high temperatures will remain near
or just below normal with a very moist low level airmass still in
place. The upper ridge axis will shift a bit eastward Thursday into
Friday and center over eastern New Mexico which will bring a return
of highs mainly in the middle 90s. Most models also depict some
midlevel moisture trapped beneath the ridge which should result in
scattered convection developing off the New Mexico high terrain
Thursday afternoon. Steering flow will be weak enough such that this
activity should remain confined to our west, and will therefore keep
PoPs sub-mentionable through Thursday night, but overall we still cannot
rule out a stray storm Thursday especially over the SW TX Panhandle.
The upper ridge will then de-amplify beginning on Friday as a
fairly potent mid/upper level trough quickly lifts northeastward
through the desert southwest. Combined with respectable low level
moisture still in place locally and PWATs still near one inch,
this should result in additional and potentially more widespread
storm activity over eastern New Mexico which may drift into
portions of West Texas on both Friday and Saturday evenings. Given
the long lead time will maintain broad mentionable PoPs through
the first half of the weekend, but storm potential still looks
highest near and west of the TX/NM state line. Despite this
additional storm potential, layer thicknesses will remain elevated
which favors a continuation of above normal temperatures this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Low MVFR stratus pushing IFR at times is on the increase this
hour over the South Plains. Toward dawn, LBB and PVW are likely
to fall to IFR before recovering to VFR by midday. ISO SHRA and a
brief TS near all terminals overnight will shift east to CDS
through early morning with slim chances thereafter for additional
TS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93