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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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671 FXUS64 KLZK 181959 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 259 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Weak high pressure remains over Arkansas, with a mix of sun and fair weather cumulus this afternoon. Given a mostly clear sky/light wind/lingering low level moisture from recent rain, patchy fog will once again form later tonight into Thursday morning. The fog will probably be more spotty than the previous two mornings. Large scale troughing will be noted over the western United States during the near term. On the leading edge of the troughing, a potent storm system will head from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains and eventually Canada Thursday/Friday. As this happens, a cold front will try to push toward us from the northwest. It appears the front will not make it, but a stray shower or thunderstorm could affect northern/western sections of the state. Otherwise, ridging in the central and southern Plains will build in our direction. Under the ridge, summer temperatures are coming, with above average readings in the forecast the next couple of days. There will also be little to no rain. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 With H500 ridging to the southwest extending northeast over the state and sfc ridging in place just to the SE, a couple of very warm days are expected at the start of the period. Highs in the lower to mid 90s F appear likely across parts of the state before the mid- level ridge is forced southward as a trough moves across the middle of the country. As the mid-level trough continues to shift east of the area, at the sfc a cold front will push into the state. While dry conditions will likely hold out for much of the weekend, some rain chances will move into the state early next week. Temperatures will be a bit closer to normal behind the front as well. Near the end of the period it appears a second H500 trough should move across the middle of the country with another cold front set to move through at the sfc. This could provide additional cooler air to the state. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected through much of this afternoon, tonight, and Thursday morning. Scattered cumulus will be noted from 4000 to 5000 feet this afternoon, with a mostly clear sky thereafter. Late tonight/early Thursday, patchy fog may create brief MVFR conditions in places. The wind will be light/variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 62 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 66 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 64 89 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 Hot Springs AR 67 93 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 67 91 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 67 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 64 93 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 62 89 67 92 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 62 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 65 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 66 91 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 63 89 66 92 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 64 88 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...46