638
FXUS64 KLZK 171920
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
220 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Eroding Rex block/weakening ridge over the northeast United
States has allowed the remnants of Francine to finally exit the
area to the east. There has been more sunshine across much of
northern/eastern/central Arkansas this afternoon, with clouds
hanging on farther south/west. This is along/north of a boundary
stalled along the Gulf Coast.

At the surface, weak high pressure and a clearing sky/light
wind/lingering low level moisture from recent rain will yield
patches of dense fog later tonight into Wednesday morning. A Dense
Fog Advisory may be required depending on the extent of the fog.

Moving ahead, the Gulf Coast boundary will wash out, and large
scale troughing from the northern Plains into the western states
will result in ridging over the central/southern Plains. The ridge
will build slowly to the east, and this will bring us warmer
temperatures, especially on Thursday. For the most part, above
average readings are expected. There is also no rain in the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Not a lot of changes from the thinking yesterday at this time. The
upper ridge building up over the central US during the short term
will extend thru Friday and Saturday, followed by some changes later
in the weekend.

A closed upper low will move across MO and lift up toward the Great
Lakes region, impacting the northern portions of the forecast area a
bit, before a more broad trof takes its place across the central
sections of the country late in the period.

At the surface a cold front will approach NW AR and will stall out,
and will eventually wash out into the NW portion of the forecast
area on Tuesday.

All of this will bring some chances for precip across primarily the
northern reaches of the forecast area from Sunday onwards, although
there will be some chances all the way down into the western and
central portions of the state. It is not inconceivable that an
organized cluster of storms during this period could form over the
northern or northwestern reaches of the area and build or propogate
further southward into the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Few clouds will be noted in much of northeast Arkansas this
afternoon, with broken/overcast conditions across the south/west due
to low clouds at 4000 to 6000 feet. Some lower cumulus may create
brief MVFR conditions in places early. Clouds will thin out
overnight, with areas of fog developing. This will create MVFR/IFR
conditions in places. Fog will dissipate Wednesday morning, and VFR
conditions will return. A light wind will vary from northeast to
southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         66  89  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       61  85  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    66  90  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  66  89  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     66  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      63  89  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  61  86  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        60  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     63  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   65  88  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         62  87  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...46