Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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406 FXUS64 KLZK 300811 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Most convection fm overnight activity has since decayed, w/ a lingering small complex departing N/Ern AR into TN... Widespread asctd high cirrus fm earlier convection remains in place, though recent IR sat imgry indicated that cloud tops were warming markedly. The remnants of this cirrus shield may not end up lasting thru to the aftn hrs later today to provide much help in keeping temps cooler. On the larger scale, broader sfc high pressure was centered over the Upper MO River Valley of NE/IA, w/ a sfc cdfrnt on the leading edge approaching the Ozark Plateau acrs Srn MO. This frnt is set to cont moving S/wrd thru the later mrng hrs today, eventually serving as the initiating mechanism for more isolated to scattered convective activity acrs portions of Wrn to Cntrl AR sometime this aftn. The last few synoptic runs of CAM guidance have indicated a slower progression, w/ CI not expected until the 20-22Z timeframe Sun aftn. Some earlier development may still possible invof a lingering antecedent outflow bndry that should be settled over Cntrl AR fm Sat night convection. A limited severe weather threat is anticipated w/ Sun precip given extremely meager shear, though prominent buoyancy ahead of the approaching frnt may still support a few stronger storms, w/ hail and some locally strong thunderstorm wind gusts possible. In addition to aftn thunderstorms, heat remains the primary hazard, w/ pre-frntl temps expected to climb to the mid to upper 90s acrs Cntrl to Srn AR. Some uncertainties still lie on how much cloud cover wl remain thru this aftn, and timing/covg of aftn precip activity. A quicker onset of precip later today wl certainly provide quicker relief to portions of Cntrl AR, and greater precip covg wl be even more beneficial. That said, did go ahead and upgrade portions of S/Ern AR to an Excessive Heat Warning, given their least likelihood to see much relief fm factors today, and fcst heat index values easily reaching 110+ degrees. Additionally, expanded the pre- existing Heat Advisory to portions of the AR River Valley over Wrn AR, and areas of the Ouachita Mountains in Wrn and S/Wrn AR. Overnight Sun and thru Mon, the aforementioned cdfrnt should usher in Nrly to N/Erly sfc flow, allowing for drier air to filter into the region as the sfc high passes to the N/E over the OH River Valley region. In the wake of the frnt, rain chcs wl taper down, w/ drier and settled wx resuming. By Mon aftn, much of the state wl notice a dramatically more pleasant airmass in place, w/ sfc Td`s mixing down to the 60s in most spots, to lower 70s along the Wrn to S/Wrn peripheries of the region. Aftn high temps wl trend towards normal values as well on Mon, w/ the N/Ern half of the state only climbing to the mid to upper 80s, and locations elsewhere trending towards the low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 TUESDAY: In the upper lvls, the ridge center becomes elongated from over the Southern Plains region extending eastward over the Mid-South region and eventual Southeastern region of the CONUS. At the sfc, the CWA and state of Arkansas will be positioned between two dynamic frontal systems that will be producing adequate chances for rain and thunderstorms. One system will be draped along the Gulf Coast region of the CONUS well south of the CWA with a second system transitioning from the Northern Plains into the Mid-Western region of the CONUS. Expect hot and dry conditions to be experienced across the Natural State as morning low temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with afternoon high temperatures peaking slightly above normal across the state by a few degrees. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): In the upper lvls, the center of the elongated ridge begins to slide southward and position over the Deep South region of the CONUS as a shortwave will approach the state associated with the northern stream of activity that will be positioned just over the Arkansas/Missouri border. At the sfc, a cold front will be positioned across central Missouri on Wednesday before evolving into a warm front on Thursday and re-positioning over northern Missouri. The combination of the overall upper lvl flow patter in conjunction with the surface features of the frontal boundary across Missouri and a sfc high pressure center located over the Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS will allow for plentiful amounts of moisture via the Gulf of Mexico to be advected into the state. In turn, this will lead to elevated dewpoint temperatures that will likely present the need for aggressive heat headlines on Wednesday and Thursday as heat index values will exceed 100 across the entire state and 110+ across much of the state. A second repercussion of this will be the availability of moisture and the possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms as temperatures rise throughout the day and air parcels across the CWA begin to reach their convective temperature and begin to rise without the need for a lifting mechanism such as a closely positioned front. Expect hot conditions to continue to prevail overall as air temperature with respect to both morning lows and afternoon highs will be 6 to 10 degrees above normal with heat index values that will exceed 110 across a large portion of the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over this two-day stretch, especially during the hottest part of the day before falling apart with the lack of daytime heating, but as mentioned in several discussions; it`s imperative to be vigilant to any storm that does form, but canceling any Independence Day plans on Thursday does not look to be needed. A higher concern over this period will be the dangerous heat index values. FRIDAY/SATURDAY: In the upper lvls, a trof approaches the state associated with the northern stream of upper lvl flow. At the sfc, a cold front dives southward into Arkansas on Friday and will become a stationary front stalled across central Arkansas on Saturday. Unfortunate news if you plan on extending your Independence Day celebration into Friday and the weekend as the presence of an approaching boundary will increase POP chances across the entire state of Arkansas with likely scattered showers and thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday. The positive tradeoff will be temperatures that will be near or slightly below normal by a few degrees during the day on Saturday. In the long term forecast period, the greatest confidence of rain/storms will be on Friday and Saturday as the cold front moves into Arkansas and stalls out across the I-40 corridor in Arkansas on Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Expansive upper cirrus shield was noted on recent IR sat imgry, moving acrs the Nrn half of the FA... BKN to OVC high cirrus wl be seen at most terminals thru the overnight PD, w/ VFR condns prevailing as winds begin to settle. Sun, expect some lower MVFR CIGS acrs Nrn AR, mostly impacting HRO/BPK, w/ condns improving towards the later mrng to early aftn hrs. Convective activity is expected to resume acrs Cntrl AR Sun aftn, w/ TSRA/VCTS mostly impacting Cntrl to Srn terminals thru the later evng hrs Sun night. Otherwise, expect Nrly winds to spread fm Nrn to Cntrl and Srn AR thru the day Sun. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 66 84 63 / 30 10 0 0 Camden AR 96 73 92 68 / 50 20 10 0 Harrison AR 87 66 85 65 / 40 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 96 72 90 68 / 60 20 0 0 Little Rock AR 95 73 89 68 / 50 20 0 0 Monticello AR 95 74 91 68 / 60 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 93 71 89 67 / 60 20 10 0 Mountain Home AR 86 66 83 63 / 30 10 0 0 Newport AR 90 66 84 64 / 20 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 73 89 66 / 60 20 0 0 Russellville AR 93 72 88 68 / 60 10 0 0 Searcy AR 92 68 86 63 / 40 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 93 72 86 66 / 40 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>034-039-042>046-052>056-062-063-066>068-121-122-130- 137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ047-057-064-065-069. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...72