500
FXUS64 KLZK 011724
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Sfc high pressure was recently analyzed over the Great Lakes region,
w/ the greater extent of N/Erly flow positioned over the lower OH
River Valley and portions of Nrn to N/Ern AR. Local sfc obs
indicated sfc dewpoints had dropped nearly 10 degrees in the past
few hours, indicating drier air is on the way, w/ the leading edge
of the of sub-70F isodrosotherm extending fm Marion Co, S/Ewrd
towards Stone and Jackson Co`s, and Ewrd to Memphis.

Thru the day today, expect N/Erly sfc winds to persist, and dry air
advection to cont, w/ sub-70F dewpoints extending over the greater
N/Ern half of the state. Slightly cooler air temps wl also be noted,
w/ aftn readings in the mid to upper 80s for most areas, while Wrn
to S/Wrn and Srn AR wl still see near-normal temps in the low 90s.
The good news is, aftn heat index values should stay subdued and
below headline levels, for at least today. Some higher chc PoPs wl
still be seen acrs Wrn to S/Wrn AR thru this aftn, where synoptic
subsidence via the sfc high pressure becomes weaker, though expect
mainly isolated/diurnal convective activity.

Tues, as Great Lakes sfc high pressure drifts E/wrd, and Cntrl
Plains sfc low pressure begins to deepen, Srly sfc flow is expected
to resume. Temps and humidity/moisture levels wl be incrsg yet
again, lkly necessitating the need for heat headlines again for
portions of the FA on Tues aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The period will begin with a ridge of high pressure over the
southern United States. Heat will return to Arkansas, with above
average temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, and afternoon heat index
values from 100 to 110 degrees and in some cases a little higher.
Heat headlines will likely be required. There will also be little to
no rain.

And just when you thought this oppressive story was going to
continue, the plot suddenly changes. The remainder of the period
will feature a trough carving itself over the middle of the country,
with ridging remaining over the southwest United States and also the
southeast. A cold front will ride a west/northwest flow aloft into
the region Thursday night/Friday. The front will be accompanied by
scattered showers/thunderstorms, followed by slightly cooler/drier
and more seasonal air.

It appears the front will wash out in or just south of the area this
weekend. Any precipitation will become more spotty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Isolated MVFR ceilings are expected to clear by 20z. A light
southeast surface flow will prevail during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  92  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         69  98  75 100 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       65  94  74  97 /   0   0   0  30
Hot Springs AR    69  97  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  69  95  77  99 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     69  96  77  99 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      68  95  73  98 /  10  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  64  93  73  96 /   0   0   0  30
Newport AR        63  92  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     67  95  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   69  95  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         64  93  73  98 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      67  92  76  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...55