406
FXUS64 KLZK 300811
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
311 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Most convection fm overnight activity has since decayed, w/ a
lingering small complex departing N/Ern AR into TN... Widespread
asctd high cirrus fm earlier convection remains in place, though
recent IR sat imgry indicated that cloud tops were warming markedly.
The remnants of this cirrus shield may not end up lasting thru to
the aftn hrs later today to provide much help in keeping temps
cooler.

On the larger scale, broader sfc high pressure was centered over the
Upper MO River Valley of NE/IA, w/ a sfc cdfrnt on the leading edge
approaching the Ozark Plateau acrs Srn MO. This frnt is set to cont
moving S/wrd thru the later mrng hrs today, eventually serving as
the initiating mechanism for more isolated to scattered convective
activity acrs portions of Wrn to Cntrl AR sometime this aftn. The
last few synoptic runs of CAM guidance have indicated a slower
progression, w/ CI not expected until the 20-22Z timeframe Sun aftn.
Some earlier development may still possible invof a lingering
antecedent outflow bndry that should be settled over Cntrl AR fm Sat
night convection.

A limited severe weather threat is anticipated w/ Sun precip given
extremely meager shear, though prominent buoyancy ahead of the
approaching frnt may still support a few stronger storms, w/ hail
and some locally strong thunderstorm wind gusts possible.

In addition to aftn thunderstorms, heat remains the primary hazard,
w/ pre-frntl temps expected to climb to the mid to upper 90s acrs
Cntrl to Srn AR. Some uncertainties still lie on how much cloud
cover wl remain thru this aftn, and timing/covg of aftn precip
activity. A quicker onset of precip later today wl certainly provide
quicker relief to portions of Cntrl AR, and greater precip covg wl
be even more beneficial. That said, did go ahead and upgrade
portions of S/Ern AR to an Excessive Heat Warning, given their least
likelihood to see much relief fm factors today, and fcst heat index
values easily reaching 110+ degrees. Additionally, expanded the pre-
existing Heat Advisory to portions of the AR River Valley over Wrn
AR, and areas of the Ouachita Mountains in Wrn and S/Wrn AR.

Overnight Sun and thru Mon, the aforementioned cdfrnt should usher
in Nrly to N/Erly sfc flow, allowing for drier air to filter into
the region as the sfc high passes to the N/E over the OH River
Valley region. In the wake of the frnt, rain chcs wl taper down, w/
drier and settled wx resuming. By Mon aftn, much of the state wl
notice a dramatically more pleasant airmass in place, w/ sfc Td`s
mixing down to the 60s in most spots, to lower 70s along the Wrn to
S/Wrn peripheries of the region. Aftn high temps wl trend towards
normal values as well on Mon, w/ the N/Ern half of the state only
climbing to the mid to upper 80s, and locations elsewhere trending
towards the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the ridge center becomes elongated from over the
Southern Plains region extending eastward over the Mid-South region
and eventual Southeastern region of the CONUS. At the sfc, the CWA
and state of Arkansas will be positioned between two dynamic frontal
systems that will be producing adequate chances for rain and
thunderstorms. One system will be draped along the Gulf Coast region
of the CONUS well south of the CWA with a second system
transitioning from the Northern Plains into the Mid-Western region
of the CONUS.

Expect hot and dry conditions to be experienced across the Natural
State as morning low temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal with afternoon high temperatures peaking slightly above
normal across the state by a few degrees.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY):

In the upper lvls, the center of the elongated ridge begins to slide
southward and position over the Deep South region of the CONUS as a
shortwave will approach the state associated with the northern
stream of activity that will be positioned just over the
Arkansas/Missouri border. At the sfc, a cold front will be
positioned across central Missouri on Wednesday before evolving into
a warm front on Thursday and re-positioning over northern Missouri.
The combination of the overall upper lvl flow patter in conjunction
with the surface features of the frontal boundary across Missouri
and a sfc high pressure center located over the Mid-Atlantic region
of the CONUS will allow for plentiful amounts of moisture via the
Gulf of Mexico to be advected into the state. In turn, this will
lead to elevated dewpoint temperatures that will likely present the
need for aggressive heat headlines on Wednesday and Thursday as heat
index values will exceed 100 across the entire state and 110+ across
much of the state. A second repercussion of this will be the
availability of moisture and the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms as temperatures rise throughout the day and air
parcels across the CWA begin to reach their convective temperature
and begin to rise without the need for a lifting mechanism such as a
closely positioned front.

Expect hot conditions to continue to prevail overall as air
temperature with respect to both morning lows and afternoon highs
will be 6 to 10 degrees above normal with heat index values that
will exceed 110 across a large portion of the CWA. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible over this two-day stretch, especially
during the hottest part of the day before falling apart with the
lack of daytime heating, but as mentioned in several discussions;
it`s imperative to be vigilant to any storm that does form, but
canceling any Independence Day plans on Thursday does not look to
be needed. A higher concern over this period will be the dangerous
heat index values.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, a trof approaches the state associated with the
northern stream of upper lvl flow. At the sfc, a cold front dives
southward into Arkansas on Friday and will become a stationary front
stalled across central Arkansas on Saturday.

Unfortunate news if you plan on extending your Independence Day
celebration into Friday and the weekend as the presence of an
approaching boundary will increase POP chances across the entire
state of Arkansas with likely scattered showers and thunderstorms on
both Friday and Saturday. The positive tradeoff will be temperatures
that will be near or slightly below normal by a few degrees during
the day on Saturday. In the long term forecast period, the greatest
confidence of rain/storms will be on Friday and Saturday as the cold
front moves into Arkansas and stalls out across the I-40 corridor in
Arkansas on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Expansive upper cirrus shield was noted on recent IR sat imgry,
moving acrs the Nrn half of the FA... BKN to OVC high cirrus wl
be seen at most terminals thru the overnight PD, w/ VFR condns
prevailing as winds begin to settle. Sun, expect some lower MVFR
CIGS acrs Nrn AR, mostly impacting HRO/BPK, w/ condns improving
towards the later mrng to early aftn hrs. Convective activity is
expected to resume acrs Cntrl AR Sun aftn, w/ TSRA/VCTS mostly
impacting Cntrl to Srn terminals thru the later evng hrs Sun
night. Otherwise, expect Nrly winds to spread fm Nrn to Cntrl and
Srn AR thru the day Sun.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  66  84  63 /  30  10   0   0
Camden AR         96  73  92  68 /  50  20  10   0
Harrison AR       87  66  85  65 /  40  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    96  72  90  68 /  60  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  95  73  89  68 /  50  20   0   0
Monticello AR     95  74  91  68 /  60  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      93  71  89  67 /  60  20  10   0
Mountain Home AR  86  66  83  63 /  30  10   0   0
Newport AR        90  66  84  64 /  20  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  73  89  66 /  60  20   0   0
Russellville AR   93  72  88  68 /  60  10   0   0
Searcy AR         92  68  86  63 /  40  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      93  72  86  66 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ031>034-039-042>046-052>056-062-063-066>068-121-122-130-
137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening for ARZ047-057-064-065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...72