479
FXUS64 KLZK 141726
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Ongoing convection across SRN/SWRN MO continues to drop south
towards AR early this Fri morning...with potential this activity
will remain ongoing for at least some time as it moves closer to the
state. Have increased POPs across NRN/NWRN sections of the CWA this
morning...gradually decreasing to the south as there should be
weakening over time.

By this afternoon...most of central/SRN AR should remain dry...but a
weak boundary or residual outflow boundaries from this morning
convection will result in at least some potential for afternoon
convection to refire. The best chances for this new convection this
afternoon will be across the NRN third of the CWA. An isolated
storng/SVR TSRA could be seen given ample forecast CAPE...but pulse
type convection looks to be the primary storm mode given very low
SHR.

Beyond the small precip chances...hot/humid conditions will continue
to become the norm starting this afternoon. Highs this afternoon
will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s...with dewpts in the 60s to
low 70s. This will result in heat index values rising to around or
just over 100 for many locations...but most areas should remain
below Heat Adv levels today. A similar story looks to be seen for
Sat as well with regarding temps...though a deg or two warmer
possibly. Heat index values will also get to around 100...though a
few locations may approach the 105 mark Sat afternoon. Will need to
keep a close eye on this as a Heat Adv may be needed for some areas
if conditions get worse than currently expected. Most areas should
remain dry for Sat given an upper level high rotating overhead. Even
so...cannot completely rule out an isolated SHRA/TSRA Sat afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The period will begin with a ridge of high pressure over the region
on Sunday, but starting to wobble to the east. This will be the
hottest day of the period, with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s in southern, central, and eastern Arkansas. In these parts
of the state, heat index values will max out between 100 and 105
degrees. This is close to but not quite Heat Advisory criteria.

Early next week, the ridge will relocate over areas from New England
to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the southeast United states.
On the back side of the high, moisture will increase a bit locally,
and this will lead to isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms
Monday through Thursday. A few of us will get rain, with most of the
region remaining dry. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the
weekend, but still above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the 18Z TAFS...

Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected to persist through
the valid forecast period. There is still a small chance of
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across far northern
Arkansas, however surface observations, visible satellite imagery,
and short range model guidance are all pessimistic about rain
chances, so removed any mention of them from the KHRO and KBPK
TAFs.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  92  72  96 /  20  10   0   0
Camden AR         68  98  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       70  90  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    71  97  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  75  97  75  98 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     71  97  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      70  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  70  90  70  94 /  20  10   0   0
Newport AR        74  94  73  98 /  20  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  97  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   74  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0
Searcy AR         73  95  72  97 /  10  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      74  95  75  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...66