624
FXUS64 KMAF 262328
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Zonal flow will continue across southeastern New Mexico and West
Texas for the next 36 hours. Warm air from the west coupled with a
downsloping effect will send temperatures tomorrow to their highest
readings this week as highs reach or exceed 100 degrees for most
locations. This will be a concern for Memorial Day activities with
heat exhaustion and dehydration a threat for everyone in the CWA.
The high temperatures lead to a warm night tomorrow night with lows
in the 60s and 70s. No precipitation is expected in the short term.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A more active day arrives Tuesday with a sharpening dryline as
southeasterly flow develops in response to surface high pressure
over OK, ushering in better moisture across the eastern CWA. With
the thermal ridge axis setting up over the region, highs look to
reach the upper 90s for most areas with 100s in the River Valleys,
around 5-10 degrees above normal. A weakness in the upper ridge
should be sufficient for storms to develop off the dryline Tuesday
afternoon, with heavy rain, hail, and strong winds all possible
threats in anything that develops. This won`t be a "slam dunk"
severe weather day as shear currently looks to be lacking
everywhere but the far eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos, but
CAPE values around 3000 J/Kg and PWs of 1.3-1.5" indicate there
may be some significant storms on Tuesday. Wednesday will see a
repeat of the dryline sharpening in the afternoon with a weakness
in the ridge, potentially bringing another round of severe storms
with a similar environmental setup.

Beyond Wednesday the pattern will remain fairly stagnate as the
dryline sets up slightly further east each afternoon and storms will
develop with multiple disturbances moving across. Temperatures will
hold fairly steady in the mid to upper 90s for most with southerly
surface flow, and those along the Rio Grande may be in Heat Advisory
territory with afternoon highs 110+. Some relief may be coming this
weekend with the breakdown of the ridge, but long range temperatures
still looks to be at or above-normal.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions with modest westerly winds will continue this TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

With no meaningful rainfall the past several months, ERCs are
currently peaking at 97th+ percentile with critically to extremely
dry fuels across the west. Previous mornings have seen poor
overnight recovery with dry westerly flow leading to afternoon
humidity as low as 3 percent nearly area-wide. Today is no
exception, and with elevated 20ft winds in the higher terrain and
surrounding foothills of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas causing
RFTIs to reach 6-7, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the
aforementioned areas through this evening. Similar to previous
mornings humidity recovery will be poor, only around 15-20%, across
the west and south tonight before one final day of widespread single-
digit humidity occurs Monday afternoon. Despite 20ft winds
significantly lighter tomorrow, near-critical fire weather
conditions will exist on Monday, specifically in the highest terrain
and surrounding foothills of West Texas. Beyond Monday, better
moisture returns as flow turns southeasterly and fire conditions
will decrease somewhat as afternoon humidity remains above critical
levels, but fuels will remain extremely dry across the west through
the end of the week with no meaningful precipitation in sight.
Instead, severe storms may develop each afternoon across the east
this week, which will bring a lightning threat and gusty and erratic
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62 102  70  96 /   0   0   0  50
Carlsbad                 61 100  63 100 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   71 106  75  99 /   0   0  10  40
Fort Stockton            67 103  71 100 /   0   0   0  40
Guadalupe Pass           64  92  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    60  97  61  98 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                    56  96  59  96 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     63 102  70  98 /   0   0   0  40
Odessa                   65 101  71  98 /   0   0   0  30
Wink                     62 104  68 102 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster
     County-Terrell.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...10