051
FXUS64 KMAF 140513
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Warm, quiet, and mostly sunny accurately sums up the short term
pretty well as weak ridging builds in over the next 24 hours.
Despite a weak cold front that moved through this morning,
temperatures have warmed up well into the 80s and low 90s this
afternoon under full sunshine. Winds quickly veer to easterly this
evening, aiding in some moisture return through the west-central
Permian Basin and resharpening up a dryline by Tuesday morning. The
dryline surges eastward in the late-morning, but a shower/storm or
two could get going across the far eastern Permian Basin in the
afternoon-severe weather is not expected with any storms. High
temperatures will be noticeably warmer under the building ridge,
with many locations topping out in the low to mid 90s.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will translate eastward across
the north-central Plains, while southwest flow aloft persists
over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Deterministic and
cluster analysis indicate that beneath the aforementioned trough
and embedded in the southwesterly flow, a subtle disturbance will
move through the region during the late afternoon and early
evening, acting as a forcing mechanism for convection.
Additionally, the dryline will make its return on Wednesday
afternoon, with low-level RH progs indicating the dryline
sharpening up in the vicinity of the Lea/Eddy county line in New
Mexico southeastward toward the Stockton Plateau and down into the
Big Bend. Heating and diurnal mixing alone look to be enough to
facilitate convective initiation Wednesday afternoon along the
dryline and over the higher terrain of Southwest Texas, with
instability on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg realized as
temperatures climb into the lower to middle 90s for most, with 80s
confined to the mountain areas. While shear will be limited and
coverage will be spotty, storms that develop could become strong
to severe, capable of mainly a hail and wind threat, with the wind
threat increasing through the evening as storms become more
outflow- driven as the dryline mixes eastward. Into the evening as
the dryline begins retreating and the low-level jet ramps up,
additional development is possible across eastern areas. Have
introduced a low (10-30%) probability mention of severe storms
across the far eastern Permian Basin to account for this, though
there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the evolution
of convective trends, which will be ironed out in later forecast
issuances.

A cold front extending from the aforementioned northern Plains
trough moves into the region Thursday, yielding continued rain
chances across northern areas, as well as cooler temperatures,
especially for locations north of I-10. Highs will top out in the
80s and lower 90s for most, with 100s along the Rio Grande in the
Big Bend. Temperatures Friday will be at least a few degrees cooler
than Thursday, owing to light northerly flow and continued
cold/cool advection for much of the day. Storms remain possible
across the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Stockton
Plateau on Thursday, but currently have only carried a low
(15-20%) chance in these areas, owing to the post-frontal air mass
and gradually drying boundary layer.

A big change arrives for the weekend as temperatures rapidly
rebound above normal, with the cooler temperatures of Thursday
and Friday becoming mere memories. Quasi-zonal flow will quickly
transition to mid-level ridging over the region, allowing for
highs to climb into the 90s for most on Saturday, and into the
lower 100s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures tick up even further
Sunday, with mid 90s and lower 100s expected region-wide, with
highs in the mid 90s in the mountains and over 110F forecast in
the Big Bend yielding our first round of Heat Advisory conditions
for the season. Stay tuned.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR continues for the next 24 hours. Light winds through the morning
shift to the south and southeast. Occasional gusts possible
during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  66  92  64 /  10   0  20  40
Carlsbad                 94  60  94  61 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   97  69  96  69 /   0   0  20  30
Fort Stockton            96  68  96  65 /   0   0  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           85  62  85  60 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    91  60  91  57 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                    89  55  88  55 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     93  67  91  64 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                   93  69  92  65 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                     96  66  95  64 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44