380
FXUS64 KMAF 260316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1016 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Quite an impressive moisture contrast across the CWA this afternoon.
Dewpoints range from the single digits in the west to the low 70s in
the east. Current satellite shows convection developing in the moist
air east of the dryline which should remain east of our warning area
though will have to monitor this closely as hi-res models are not
handling this particularly well. Otherwise more of the same is
expected in the short term. Above normal temperatures will continue
the next 36 hours under mostly clear skies. No precipitation is
expected.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The dry heat continues! Upper level ridging will carry over into
Monday with a thermal ridge axis situated over the region, and 850mb
temps of 30-32C indicate temperatures could reach the upper 90s/low
100s for most Monday afternoon. Some models try to bring a weak cold
front into the area on Monday as well, and should it reach the
northern Permian Basin before peak heating, temperatures may be
slightly cooler across the north than currently forecast.
Regardless, low level moisture will begin to filter back into the
region with surface high pressure over the Central Plains, and a
dryline will sharpen on Tuesday. A weakness in the upper ridge
should be sufficient for storms to develop off the dryline Tuesday
afternoon, with heavy rain, hail, and strong winds all possible in
any storms that develop. This won`t be a "slam dunk" severe
weather day as shear currently looks to be lacking, but CAPE
values of about 3000 J/Kg and PWs of 1.3-1.5" indicate an
interesting afternoon...will keep an eye on the set up as we get
closer to the event.

Beyond Tuesday the pattern will remain fairly stagnate with the
dryline setting up slightly further east each afternoon and storms
will develop with multiple disturbances moving across. Temperatures
will hold fairly steady in the mid to upper 90s for most with
southerly surface flow, and those along the Rio Grande may be in
Heat Advisory territory with afternoon highs 110+. Some relief may
be coming this weekend with the breakdown of the ridge, but long
range temperatures still looks to be at or above-normal.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds.
Convective temps remain to high for cu. Relatively light westerly
flow will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Warm and dry weather continues in the coming days. ERCs are in the
97th+ percentile and fuels are critically to extremely dry. Strong
westerly 20ft winds this afternoon are meeting with humidity as low
as 3 percent to create extreme fire weather conditions across the
west with RFTIs of 7-8, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect through
this evening. 20ft winds decrease tonight everywhere except the
mountains where they will remain elevated, but overnight recovery
will be poor, around or less than 20% RH, with westerly flow
continuing. Humidity once again falls to 5-6% area-wide Sunday
afternoon, with an uptick of 20ft winds across the far west. Given
RFTIs of 5-7 and no improvement in fuel moisture, a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Sunday afternoon and early evening. The
drier air sticks around through at least Monday, but 20ft winds
should be lighter than previous days. Still, given ERCs and
extremely dry fuels, Monday will be another near-critical fire
weather day with poor overnight recovery out west. Moisture will
finally begin to push back in on Tuesday with surface flow switching
southeasterly, and a sharpening dryline Tuesday afternoon should be
sufficient for storms to develop, which may bring frequent lightning
and gusty and erratic winds. Fire weather concerns decrease Tuesday
and beyond with this increase in moisture, but meaningful
precipitation doesn`t look likely across the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  98  62 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63  96  61 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   72 105  70 106 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  99  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  86  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    61  93  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  93  55  96 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  96  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   68  96  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     64  99  62 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson
     County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...44