655
FXUS64 KMAF 280543
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered from northern Sonora to
West Texas, portending another warm day for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. However, sporadic mid/high cloud may play
hob w/afternoon temperatures, knocking a degree or two off highs.
CAMs suggest convective chances will be a struggle this
afternoon/evening, as instability looks tepid.

Tonight, a 35+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and will combine with
partly cloudy skies to retard radiational cooling, once again
keeping overnight lows unseasonably warm.

Friday, the ridge shifts slightly east, and thicknesses increase,
adding a couple of degrees to today`s highs and yielding the warmest
day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 10 F above normal.  If
there`s a day this forecast that warrants Heat Advisories, this is
it.  As such, we`ve issued Heat Advisories for mainly mountains and
river valleys.  The mid shift can add or subtract as necessary.
W/the slight shifting of the ridge to the east, convective chances
over the higher terrain will be a little higher than today`s, but
not by much.

Friday night, what little convection there is will diminish w/loss
of daytime heating.  A stronger, 40+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop,
and will once again combine w/cloud cover for another uncomfortable
night of temperatures ~ 10 F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The short of the long term forecast is that a typical summer pattern
continues to be expected. Upper level ridging remains this weekend
and into next week over Texas and much of the Southern US. This will
keep temperatures a few degrees above normal in the upper 90s to low
100s for most through the extended. Continued southerly to
southeasterly flow in the low levels will keep moisture extending
across the region. Rain chances will be best to the west over the
higher terrain each afternoon and early evening. Long range guidance
continues to show a monsoon season setup with a ridge moving over
the Four Corners region late next week.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds generally stay steady
out the south-southeast. Common gusts linger at FST through the
overnight with the LLJ and gusts develop at MAF for the afternoon
hours. A stay shower or two is possible near all terminals in the
afternoon hours but coverage is going to be way too low to mention
in TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              105  78 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                104  77 102  75 /  20  10  20  10
Dryden                  102  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           105  76 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           95  75  93  70 /  30  20  30  10
Hobbs                   103  74 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                    98  66  98  65 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport    104  76  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  104  77 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    107  78 104  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Borden-Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Mitchell-Pecos-Scurry-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...16