380
FXUS64 KMAF 300549
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1249 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

We have had four 100 degree days in a row here at MAF, will today be
the fifth? Whether we do or not won`t really matter as it will be
hot today, and the heat continues into tomorrow. High pressure
remains over North Texas keeping our CWA under a deep southeasterly
to southerly flow. The proximity of the high keeps the heat on us,
but there is enough moisture from the Gulf making its way west that
highs remain well off anything record breaking. Still it`s hot
enough for heat exhaustion to be a threat so stay hydrated if
outdoors. Mountain convection will be a bit sparse today but should
increase tomorrow with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains providing more much needed
rainfall. Overnight lows remain uncomfortably warm only dropping
into the 70s at most locations.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Heading into the day on Monday, conditions across the area remain
mostly unchanged with highs reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s.
Lows stay a few degrees above normal as return flow continues bring
warm, moist air into the region. This pattern continues into the
middle of the coming week. Showers and storms form and dissipate
over the mountains to the west each afternoon and evening. Then, a
change in the pattern to end the week. Long range guidance is coming
into agreement on the ridge over the Southern US weakening and
shifting eastward and a new ridge to move over the Four Corners to
the west. While the strength and position of that ridge remains
uncertain, a move to this pattern increases rain chances for the
region. Lingering low level moisture and shortwave troughs moving
out of the northwest around the edge of the ridge are a typical
pattern for the summer monsoon season. Where and how much rain falls
is not clear at the moment, but those details will be fleshed out
leading up to the pattern shift. Stay tuned!

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions continue throughout the period. Winds remains
somewhat gusty through the overnight period except MAF and HOB.
These gusts largely diminish by 12z (but stay elevated at INK/FST)
and remain steady out of the southeast throughout the day. Gusty
winds return to all terminals again this evening as the LLJ
redevelops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  73  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   96  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    98  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    94  61  94  63 /  20   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    101  76 102  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...16