Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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684 ACUS11 KWNS 302013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302012 MTZ000-IDZ000-302215- Mesoscale Discussion 1494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...southern and central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302012Z - 302215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across portions of Montana with an increase in threat for damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage across southwestern Montana. Recent radar trends have shown an uptick in lightning activity. Daytime heating across Montana has led to temperatures in the mid to upper 70 to low 80s across southern, central, and eastern Montana. Surface objective analysis indicates steep low to mid-level lapse rates in an environment characterized by MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Instability is progged to increase through the afternoon, along with large scale lift as enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region from the west. As a result, deep layer shear will also increase, aiding in more organized storms that will tend to grow upscale through time and pose a risk of damaging wind and some instances of large hail. Trends will be monitored, with potential for a watch to be needed in this region in the next 1-2 hrs. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 45161317 46501182 47480909 47490759 46990707 45810612 45630624 45260973 45211076 44791177 44401275 44681314 45161317