844
ACUS11 KWNS 272148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272147
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico...southeastern
Colorado...southwestern Kansas...and portions of the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 272147Z - 272315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms developing across portions of the central/southern
High Plains region from southeastern Colorado/northeastern New
Mexico northeastward into southwestern Kansas will pose increasing
risk for locally severe wind gusts.  WW may be required in the next
hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms gradually increasing in
coverage from northeastern New Mexico and adjacent southeastern
Colorado, to near of KTQX (Scott City, KS).  The storms are
occurring in a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer, where modest CAPE
above the LCL is supporting a few stronger updrafts.  The
development appears to be occurring in part due to response of the
environment to a very subtle/mid-level disturbance moving eastward
across southern Colorado at this time.

While a more unstable airmass -- and thus potential for more robust
convection -- exists farther north, into northwestern Kansas and
points north, the deep/dry boundary layer will promote potential for
evaporatively enhanced downdrafts, and associated potential for
severe-caliber gusts locally.  We will continue to monitor this
region in the short term, for signs that risk may increase in
coverage, which could support the need to consider WW issuance.

..Goss/Smith.. 06/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36450465 37650383 38540113 38819962 38329944 36900015
            35810125 35800467 36450465