199
ACUS11 KWNS 211815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211815
TXZ000-NMZ000-212015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211815Z - 212015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Persistent upslope flow and daytime heating should allow
for continued thunderstorm development early this afternoon over
eastern NM. Gradual intensification/organization into supercells is
expected. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes are possible. A WW is likely needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 1810 UTC, regional WV imagery showed a potent
upper low quickly overspreading the southern Rockies and High
Plains. Height falls and the approach of a 70 kt speed max will
support fairly strong forcing for ascent over the region through the
next several hours. Diurnal heating and low-level warm air advection
over much of eastern NM and west TX will support moderate
destabilization with 1500-2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE expected. In
combination with the synoptic scale-forcing and continued upslope of
low-60s F surface dewpoints, additional storm development is likely
early this afternoon.

As convection evolves, the strong mid-level flow aloft will also
gradually overspread the area, supporting large effective shear.
KFDX VAD data shows veering low and mid-level hodographs have
expanded, with 45-50 kt of effective shear present. Storm
organization into supercells is expected with time. Fairly steep
mid-level lapse rates (~7-8 C/Km) and the semi-discrete mode suggest
large to very large hail will be likely with the more robust
supercells. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are also
possible, owing to the strengthening flow aloft, and enhanced
low-level shear near a diffuse surface boundary.

Short-term model guidance and observational trends suggest the
ongoing convection should steadily increase in
intensity/organization through the remainder of the afternoon.
Additional storm development/intensification is also likely along
the cold front across central NM later this afternoon, though timing
remains somewhat uncertain. With the potential for all hazards
across much of eastern NM and west TX, a WW appears likely in the
next couple of hours.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   35490474 36430340 36430178 35850129 35330100 34130133
            31620314 31110422 31170503 31580537 32550541 34130526
            34720509 35490474