Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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102 ACUS11 KWNS 252243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252243 ILZ000-MOZ000-252345- Mesoscale Discussion 1414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0543 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...East-central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252243Z - 252345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue through this evening across portions of east-central MO. Hail up to 1-1.75" in diameter, and damaging wind gusts near 60-70 mph will accompany them. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from around the area indicates several robust updrafts have developed along and near an outflow boundary, where surface convergence is being maximized. Surface observations with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s, beneath mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km, are yielding MLCAPE near 3500-4000 J/kg. Although deep layer flow is fairly weak, which should limit overall persistent storm organization, very large CAPE within the hail growth zone is present. Slow storm motions should limit interactions/mergers for another hour or so, allowing deep, robust updrafts to remain present and the opportunity for severe hail production to continue. In addition, steep low-level lapse rates/large DCAPE will support wet microbursts. This will especially be true as thunderstorms begin to merge from the west and east. Trends will be monitored for upscale growth, and the potential of more numerous damaging wind gusts. A WW is possible. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38889279 39099277 39289246 39399229 39469195 39589158 39419133 39189102 38909076 38699054 38489034 38219034 37839077 37879169 37869259 38149276 38569282 38889279