816
FXUS64 KMEG 070841
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
341 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A ridge of high pressure will bring rain free weather and less
humid air to the Mid-South through Saturday morning. Highs today
will be in the 80s with lows tonight in the 60s. Humidity will
increase on Saturday as southerly winds on the back side of high
pressure return to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front will
drop into the region late Saturday night into Sunday bringing a
return of showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly north of I-40
Saturday night. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy
rainfall are the threats for any thunderstorms that become severe.
Rain chances will decrease into next week as an upper-level ridge
slowly builds across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show an elongated upper-
level low centered over eastern Ontario, an upper-level trough
encompassing the eastern half of the US, and upper-level ridging
across the western U.S. Early morning surface analysis shows a
weak cold front bisecting the Lower Mississippi Valley over
central Arkansas through north Mississippi. Temperatures as of 3
AM CDT range from the middle to upper 60s north of I-40, and lower
70s south.

The aforementioned front will continue pushing south across the
remainder of the area today as a ridge of high pressure settles in
across the Mid-South. This will result in a less humid airmass
across the area through tonight. Highs will be in the 80s with a
few locations approaching the upper 80s. Surface dewpoints will
increase again on Saturday as southerly winds gradually advect
low-level moisture back up into the area.

Short-term models indicate the Lower Mississippi Valley will
remain on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge axis
initially on Saturday while areas closer to the MO/KY border will
be under the influence of northwest flow aloft. A series of
subtle shortwaves embedded within the mid-level flow will bring
several chances for showers and thunderstorms over the Middle
Mississippi Valley. Model soundings indicate a combination of low-
level dry air and the presence of a capping inversion will keep
rain chances minimal across most of the forecast area until
modest mid-level height falls occur Saturday night into Sunday.
HREF/LREF Grand Ensemble output shows a corridor of strong
surface-based instability with 0-6 km shear between 30-35 kts, and
moderately steep to steep mid-level lapse rates from the Ozarks
to the northern half of the Mid-South. These parameters would
favor the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe weather
threats. NAEFS precipitable water values approaching the 90th
percentile for early June will pose a localized heavy rainfall
threat for any training thunderstorms.

Long range operational and ensemble model guidance indicates the
Mid-South will remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft
through early next week with mid-level heights increasing towards
late next week. This will result in some lingering isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South, especially south
of I-40 during peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR with north to northeast winds 5-10kt tonight and tomorrow

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS