676
FXUS64 KMEG 161732
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Showers will continue across north Mississippi today before dry
conditions return area wide this evening. Fog will possible each
night through the forecast period. Daily highs will be in the 80s
and morning lows in the upper 50s and 60s as high pressure reigns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The weak upper low of what was once Francine will finally exit the
Mid-South later this afternoon. The remaining moisture field from
Francine will interact with an inverted shortwave from east
Tennessee and will keep showers across north Mississippi through
early evening. The lack of instability once again today will keep
thunder out of the forecast. A half an inch may picked up across
this area before showers come to an end.

Clear skies, light winds, and a saturated surface supports fog
development each night through the forecast package. A pleasant
week is in store with sunny skies and highs in the 80s. Upper
level ridging will build in starting tomorrow as a blocking
pattern sets up. The Mid-South will be sandwiched between
Tropical System 8 and a deep low over the northern Rockies, but be
dominated by the northern ridge. Due to the placement of the
ridge, northerly flow is expected to keep days comfortable and
nights crisp with lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Morning showers have begun to dissipate over the past couple
hours and drops to MVFR have become seldom. This trend is expected
to continue throughout the day as drier air finally overcomes the
moisture left behind by Francine this weekend. Therefore, clouds
should be well above VFR at all terminals by 21z this afternoon
and FEW250/SKC early tonight.

With clearing overnight and very saturated soils across the area,
moisture will be abundant at or just above the surface. Coupling
the surface moisture with clear skies will allow for a decent
amount of radiative cooling to occur across much of the region. In
response, FG/BR is somewhat of a concern at any terminal where
such cooling can occur. At the moment this appears to be most
likely at JBR/TUP since dry air advection is expected to eat away
at moisture in MEM/MKL. Confidence in these impacts are still
somewhat low and could be changed in subsequent TAF issuances.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB