580
FXUS64 KMEG 141735
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Rainy conditions and below normal temperatures will continue into
the early part of next week, as low pressure remains over the
Midsouth. Dry and warmer air will spread into the Midsouth Tuesday
and Wednesday, as an upper level ridge builds in from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed the remnant midlevel
low pressure of Tropical Depression Francine had sheared into an
elongated trough centered near Memphis and extending from the
Ozarks to northern AL. The bulk of rainfall was occurring on the
eastern side of the shear axis, in an area of elevated moisture
convergence across the TN River valley.

The convergent axis will weaken and rotate to the north side to
the midlevel trough center, as it drops into north MS this
afternoon. The Flood Watch was continued for another day over
northeast MS. The upper trough will move little on Sunday, but
continue to weaken.

An upper ridge axis over TX will begin to build north into the
central plains and mid-MS River Valley on Monday and Tuesday, as
the weakening upper trough exits to our south. A few showers and
thunderstorms will remain over north MS on Monday, but warmer and
predominately dry conditions should prevail over all the Midsouth
by Tuesday. The warm and dry weather will continue through late
next week, as an Omega blocking pattern develops, keeping the
Midsouth under the eastern periphery of the upper ridge.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

MVFR and IFR CIGs will prevail through the period as the remnants
of Francine remain parked over the Mid-South. Overnight, expect
a widespread IFR deck to develop, impacting TUP and MEM. In
addition, a low level jet will stretch from west Tennessee into
northern Alabama. Confidence for impacts are greater this period,
so added WS to MKL TAF. Greater rain chances return this
afternoon, lasting through Sunday morning. Overall, thunder
probabilities remain low with this activity so opted against TS
mention at this time. Otherwise, east winds will be relatively
steady at 9 - 11kts.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ004>006-009-014>017-
     023-024.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ091-092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS