127
FXUS62 KMFL 041354
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
954 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Yet another hot day is in store for South Florida. Heat indices
will likely rise into the 105-110 degree range this afternoon, and
could persist for several hours given the reduced rain chances -
especially across the east coast metro areas. With little change
to the pattern and conditions expected tomorrow, the Heat Advisory
was extended through Friday evening for the whole area. Peak heat
indices will likely reach the 105-110 degree range once again.
Other than this extension, no significant updates with this
forecast package. &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Modestly drier air (PWATs generally 1.6 to 1.8 inches) will filter into
the area today to the north of Hurricane Beryl`s circulation, while at
the mid-lvls the ridge over the SE CONUS will remain in place, with deep
(but not particularly strong) easterly flow prevailing. This configuration
should result in only isolated-scattered showers and storms over the east
coast metro with any activity likely shifted west by mid-late afternoon.
Storm coverage will be a bit more numerous over Interior and SW Florida
where low-lvl convergence will be maximized along the Gulf breeze, with
the peak storm time being late this afternoon into the early evening.
So it would likely be a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast/radar
if you have evening plans in SW Florida.

The main story today will be another day of excessive heat, with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices 105-110 degrees
expected area-wide (maybe even locally higher in Interior/SW Florida),
and consequently, a heat advisory is in place over all of South Florida.
Overnight lows will offer limited relief in the humid easterly regime,
with overnight lows struggling to make it out of the 80s near the coast,
and heat indices remaining above 90 degrees for much of the night.

The ridge will weaken and shift slightly east heading into Friday with the
synoptic low-lvl flow becoming lighter and more sea breeze driven.
Additionally, moisture will begin to pool once again over the area with
PWATs increasing back into the 2-2.2 inch range. Consequently expect
greater storm coverage relative to Thursday, with the focus largely
being near and just inland of the coasts along both sea breezes. Given
the increased moisture and lack of deep-layer steering flow,
localized hydro concerns will be possible with localized accumulations
in the 2-4 inch range. However, the weak forcing and lack of
shear should result in short individual cell lifespans, keeping the
hydro threat localized and low-end (i.e. more nuisance or poor drainage
flooding). Temperatures will only vary slightly from Thursday, likely a
little warmer on the east coast and a little cooler on the west coast, so
excessive heat will once again be a concern with headlines possible,
particularly if convection is slow to initiate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Although the Southeastern US H5 ridge will continue to erode into the
upcoming weekend as troughing establishes itself over the SE US, and an
Atlantic cut-off low impinges on it from the east, at least for SFL its
general influence will remain, blocking the passage of any shortwaves and
cutting us off from the mid-latitudes. At the low-levels, generally light
S-SErly synoptic flow will become established beyond Saturday as South
Florida will come to reside on the western periphery of Atlantic high
pressure. The moist airmass, characterized by PWATs over 2 inches, will
remain in place through the upcoming weekend before some drier air/SAL
plume likely filters in from the southeast early next week.

Rain chances will remain seasonably high through the weekend, with
localized flooding being the main threat with any storms given the
continued weak flow and high PWATs. Somewhat reduced rain chances can be
expected early next week, however, it remains to be seen how quickly the
drier air arrives Monday and if it is able to persist through Wednesday.
With the ridge remaining in control, the only relief from the heat will be
daily storms/cloud cover, so highs in the 90s and triple-digit heat
indices are likely. Will have to monitor for heat headline concerns
more or less each day, with the driving factor on whether or not
advisories are issued likely being the timing and extent of precip
coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Generally VFR through the period. Light and variable winds become
easterly later this morning. There`s a very slight chance of
showers impacting East Coast sites in the early afternoon, but
confidence does not extend beyond mention of VCSH. Higher
confidence regarding impacts to KAPF later in the evening; short

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters
through the end of the week as weak ridging prevails, although winds
could shift to the W-SW in the afternoons over the near-shore Gulf waters as the Gulf
breeze develops. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms could develop, resulting in locally higher
winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The moderate risk of rip currents will persist along the east coast
beaches today, as easterly flow persists. Winds will decrease Friday
into the weekend resulting in a decreasing risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  79  93  79 /  20  10  60  20
West Kendall     92  77  94  77 /  30  10  60  20
Opa-Locka        93  79  94  79 /  20  10  60  20
Homestead        91  78  91  78 /  20  10  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  91  79 /  20  10  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  60  20
Pembroke Pines   94  79  95  79 /  20  10  60  20
West Palm Beach  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  60  10
Boca Raton       92  78  93  79 /  20  10  60  20
Naples           94  80  92  80 /  40  30  70  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Rizzuto