Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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315 FXUS62 KMFL 281409 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1009 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 959 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The main change to the forecast this morning was to add Collier and Mainland Monroe County to the Heat Advisory. With the majority of South Florida remaining dry this morning, heat index values are already climbing past 105 degrees in Collier County. With convection still a few hours away in these areas, heat index values will be able to approach or even exceed advisory criteria. As the sea breezes develop and push inland, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. With rather warm temperatures aloft (500mb temps of -5 to -6C) combined with rather poor lapse rates (5.7-5.9C/km), strong thunderstorm development will remain rather limited. The main concern with convection this afternoon will be the slow motion combined with the potential for heavy downpours. With a very weak steering flow in place, localized flooding may become a concern this afternoon over the low lying and poor drainage areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Today, a typical wet season day is expected, with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially over the interior and eastern areas. The lighter synoptic flow, predominantly from the south-southeast, will allow sea-breeze circulations to propagate further inland. This will favor inland areas instead of the coastline metro areas; however, there remains a possibility of a few storms drifting eastward and impacting the east coast, potentially causing localized flooding. Aside from the heavy rainfall, lightning and gusty winds will be other hazards that may accompany thunderstorms. By Saturday, an upper-level high will shift into the Florida Panhandle, resulting in an easterly flow within the boundary layer. This shift will promote showers and thunderstorms along the east coast during the morning hours, gradually propagating towards the interior and west coast by the evening. This pattern should favor the heaviest rainfall generally over the western half of the region, though the east coast may receive its fair share of rainfall at times as well. Maximum temperatures will be seasonable and typical for this time of year, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight low temperatures will range from the low to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 As we round out the weekend, the synoptic pattern will continue to evolve, as the development of upper-level ridging expands over the deep South. This ridge will cause winds to prevail from the south overnight, then veer to the east-southeast throughout the remainder of the weekend. During this period, mesoscale dynamics will be crucial in convective initiation, generally overruling synoptic forcing for ascent (which will be meager through much of the week). Near- normal precipitable water (PWAT) values will support the daily development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The steady easterly surface flow will establish a typical convective pattern: isolated showers or thunderstorms over the East Coast Metro area in the morning, increasing in coverage and shifting towards the interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening. Localized flooding remains a primary concern due to the weak flow pattern. In the long term, temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages. Highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching into the triple digits. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the ESE early this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms may develop near the terminals this afternoon as the sea breezes push inland. This activity will gradually shift towards the interior as the afternoon progresses. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Gentle southeasterly winds will gradually turn out of the east/southeast over the weekend. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters will be generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and seas each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 93 80 / 50 20 50 30 West Kendall 94 77 92 78 / 50 20 50 30 Opa-Locka 94 79 93 79 / 50 20 50 30 Homestead 91 79 90 79 / 40 20 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 91 80 / 50 30 50 30 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 91 80 / 50 20 50 30 Pembroke Pines 95 80 92 81 / 50 20 50 30 West Palm Beach 93 78 91 79 / 50 20 50 30 Boca Raton 93 79 89 80 / 50 20 50 30 Naples 92 78 93 78 / 50 30 70 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ067>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC