340
FXUS62 KMFL 271158
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
758 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The mid-lvl ridge will remain in place over SFL this Memorial Day,
maintaining hot and largely dry conditions over the area. Can`t rule out
isolated to scattered (at best) showers and thunderstorms over the
Interior and east coast late this afternoon (with the east coast sea
breeze being the main focus for convection) but given the dry mid-lvls
and dynamic subsidence do not expect that storm intensity and coverage
will be particularly notable. The main story will be today`s high
temperatures which will likely approach daily records, reaching the mid
to even upper 90s (with any low 90s likely confined to the immediate coast).
Although peak heat indices will likely reach triple digits, the
airmass should be dry enough to keep peak head indices below heat
headline criteria.

The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the eastern
CONUS while a cold front will move into northern Florida (and then
largely stall for the mid-week period). Given increasing synoptic ascent
of the trough, and the seasonably hot and unstable airmass south of the
front, increased convective activity relative to Monday is expected with
scattered to even perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms. The synoptic
flow will remain westerly so the mesoscale convective focus should once
again be the east coast sea breeze which will favor the eastern half of
the Peninsula for storms. Given that highs will once again reach the mid
90s, steep low-lvl lapse rates and abundant DCAPE is expected leading to
the potential for strong wet microbursts, however, with the flow aloft
remaining modest don`t see a widespread (organized) severe threat
materializing at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

In contrast to the ridging dominated pattern that has largely
prevailed over our area the last few weeks, the longwave pattern
through the extended period will be characterized by longwave
troughing over the eastern CONUS with several convectively-
enhanced shortwaves also likely moving into the region. At the
surface, the aforementioned cold front will likely remain stalled
near or just north of the area through most of the workweek with a
continued warm and largely sea-breeze driven wind regime
prevailing (albeit trending more easterly by the late week
period). This setup will result in generally scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, although the exact evolution will
remain somewhat uncertain as synoptic forcing remains weak making
mesoscale interactions (i.e. sea breezes and outflow boundaries)
more prominent. Temperatures should remain above normal, with
highs in the 90s (highest temperatures Interior) through the
workweek.

Heading into next weekend high pressure north of the area will build,
resulting in increasing synoptic easterly flow, and potentially even
bringing the (weak) cold front through the area. Given that we will be
entering June confidence is not super high in the front making it into
the Straits, but if anything the enhanced easterly flow should at
least knock down high temps a few degrees over the east coast
regardless of whether or not the front makes it through.
Additionally, if the stronger easterly regime materializes
instability would be knocked down and we would see a temporary
shift from a wet season diurnal deep convection regime to one in
which rain would be more of the coastal convergence showers
variety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 756 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail at all terminals during the
next 24 hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled
out this afternoon, but chances are very low. SE to SSE winds
return after 15Z, except westerly winds at KAPF with the sea
breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Moderate S-SE flow will continue on Monday and persist through the
middle of the week over the Atlantic waters. The Gulf waters will
likely see more westerly flow through the period, particularly the
near-shore waters in the afternoon given the onshore progression of
the Gulf breeze each afternoon. Conditions may approach small craft
exercise criteria today with wind speeds around 15kts and possibly
higher gusts but seas should remain low through the period. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with increasing storm
chances Tuesday through the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  80  93  79 /  20  30  50  40
West Kendall     95  77  95  75 /  20  30  50  40
Opa-Locka        95  79  95  78 /  20  30  50  40
Homestead        93  79  93  77 /  20  20  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  92  79 /  20  40  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  94  79  93  78 /  20  30  50  50
Pembroke Pines   96  80  96  79 /  20  30  50  40
West Palm Beach  95  77  95  76 /  10  20  50  50
Boca Raton       94  79  94  77 /  20  30  50  50
Naples           93  78  93  78 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver