035
FXUS62 KMFL 291351
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
951 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Plenty of moisture remains in place across South Florida as PWAT
values from the 12Z KMFL sounding came in at 2.03 inches. As the
sea breezes develop and push inland, this will be the main
mechanism for shower and thunderstorm development heading into
the afternoon and evening hours. With a slightly stronger easterly
wind flow in place, convection will favor the interior and
western sections this afternoon and this evening. Chances for
strong thunderstorm development will continue to remain limited as
500mb temperatures are rather warm (around -6C) and mid level
lapse rates remain rather poor (5.7-5.9C/km). The steering flow
will still remain rather weak today, which will lead to slow storm
motion throughout the day. This, combined with heavy downpours
could lead to localized flooding especially along the west coast.
High temperatures this afternoon will generally rise into the
lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid 90s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Heat indices have
already risen to 105 or higher across portions of the area and
they could continue to rise as the day progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today, easterly wind flow is expected to increase slightly across
the region as the surface ridge axis approaches. While sea breeze
and other mesoscale boundaries will continue to be the main
drivers for shower and thunderstorm development, the enhanced
easterly wind flow will shift the highest chances of convection
towards the interior and west coast as the day progresses. Strong
thunderstorm development remains limited due to a lack of mid to
upper-level support.

Forecast models consistently expand a ridge aloft over the
region, which will deepen over the weekend. This will result in
veering winds across South Florida, shifting to a more
southeasterly flow by Sunday. Consequently, the bulk of convection
is expected to develop along the western metro and eastern
interior areas, with the possibility of extending further along
the east coast, particularly if a westerly augmentation in the
steering flow materializes. Localized flooding will be the primary
hazard, although the recent days of relatively lower rainfall
over the east coast may help mitigate the rainfall amounts
required to cause flooding.

High temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the east coast
metro areas and the mid-90s in the interior portions of Southwest
Florida. Heat index values will rise to 105 or higher, especially
across the interior sections. Some locations may approach heat
advisory criteria, so the issuance of heat advisories cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The synoptic pattern of predominantly easterly flow is expected
to continue into early next week, with daytime heating and sea
breezes driving afternoon convection daily. The east to
southeasterly boundary layer flow will focus most convection over
the interior and Gulf Coast regions, though some sporadic
convection may also affect the east coast.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
to develop over the East Coast Metro areas during the late morning
and early afternoon, increasing in coverage and shifting west
into the interior and Gulf Coast areas by late afternoon and early
evening. Localized flooding remains a primary concern due to the
weak flow pattern.

Temperatures will remain around or slightly above normal, with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices
reaching triple digits. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Light and variable winds will increase out of the east early this
afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will develop mainly over
the interior and west coast this afternoon. Periods of sub-VFR
conditions will be possible near storms especially at KAPF.
Chances of showers and storms will diminish as the evening
progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Winds will gradually shift out of the east through this weekend.
Seas in the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less
through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with
locally higher winds and waves in and around showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
West Kendall     92  77  89  76 /  40  40  70  40
Opa-Locka        92  78  89  78 /  50  40  70  40
Homestead        91  79  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
Fort Lauderdale  90  79  87  78 /  40  40  70  40
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  87  78 /  50  40  70  30
Pembroke Pines   94  79  89  78 /  50  40  70  40
West Palm Beach  91  78  88  77 /  50  40  70  30
Boca Raton       91  79  88  78 /  50  40  70  30
Naples           94  77  90  76 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ069>075-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC