Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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349 FXUS62 KMFL 240626 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 226 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The week will start off with continued unsettled weather across South Florida as mid-level troughing dives down across the eastern US, pushing out any influence of mid-level ridging over the area. Surface high pressure over the Atlantic will weaken further, resulting in very weak southeasterly winds across our area. Deep tropical moisture already in place (PWAT of 2.1") will get a bit of enhancement up to 2.2-2.3" today as additional moisture moves in from over the Caribbean. This, along with extra lift from the mid-level troughing, will result in another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily initiating along sea breeze boundaries. Chances will be highest along the East Coast metro during the morning to early afternoon hours, shifting to the interior and Gulf Coast during the mid afternoon to evening hours. Storm motion will remain slow with weak winds in the low to mid levels, which will lead to localized flooding concerns for poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of storms. Overnight showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily over the Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro. The overall synoptic and mesoscale setup will not change much on Tuesday aside from the mid-level troughing over the area slightly weakening. So, we can expect another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds and heavy downpours being the primary concerns. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and Tuesday, with afternoon heat indices around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The unsettled weather pattern will continue in the long term period as a mid-level trough dives across the Midwest into the Southeast US on Wednesday and Thursday, retaining weak troughing over South Florida through the end of the week. The weak flow will keep the deep tropical moisture in place over the area, with PWAT values of 2-2.3" expected each day. By this weekend, guidance continues to be in good agreement on the mid-level troughing being gradually pushed out as a mid-level ridge builds across most of the southern US. Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze convection will remain, with deep tropical moisture allowing for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. One thing that will change from early in the week is low-level winds over South Florida will turn more south-southwesterly for mid to late week, shifting the focus of the sea-breeze convection to be more over the interior and East Coast metro. Localized flooding will continue to be a concern due to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall as well as slow storm motions. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and over the weekend. Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 SCT MVFR ceilings expected this morning as widely SCT showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible. Coverage of showers and storms increases this afternoon into early evening, with VCTS at all locations after 16Z. Outside of thunderstorms, light and variable winds this morning become E/SE around 10 kts except for APF where a westerly Gulf breeze will develop this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue across the local waters through early this week. These winds will gradually veer and become south to southwesterly and light by the middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 77 90 77 / 70 40 70 50 West Kendall 89 75 90 75 / 70 40 60 50 Opa-Locka 89 77 90 77 / 70 40 60 50 Homestead 88 77 89 77 / 60 40 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 86 77 88 77 / 60 40 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 88 78 89 77 / 60 40 60 50 Pembroke Pines 90 78 92 78 / 70 40 60 50 West Palm Beach 89 77 90 77 / 60 30 60 50 Boca Raton 89 77 90 77 / 60 40 60 50 Naples 89 77 89 78 / 70 60 60 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...CMF