![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
759 FXUS66 KMFR 271033 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 333 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .DISCUSSION...Inland high temperatures look to only be a few to several degrees below normal today. But, it looks to be quite some time before they are again as cool as they will be today, at least through the next 10 days while the ECMWF extended ensemble mean suggests it may be beyond July. Also of note, a cold frontal passage yesterday afternoon brought wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph to the east side. Late day winds during the next week look to be closer to their breezy normal. Besides the cooling, yesterday`s cold front and a surface trough passage early this morning brought up to a few hundredths of an inch of light showers to the coast and Coast Range mountains, with an intrusion of low clouds across western Oregon to the Cascades. Weak ridging will begin to build into the coast around sunrise, and put an end to the risk of light showers shortly thereafter with a slow erosion of the stratus. The low clouds are expected to clear at the coast by noon, and will be faster to erode farther inland, generally by 10 or 11 AM PDT. The pattern of westerly flow aloft looks to produce a stable air mass over our area during the next week, with near or very slightly above normal temperatures from tomorrow/Friday into early next week. The slow passage of another weaker trough is expected to bring high clouds across the area Friday night into early Saturday, and also increase the coverage and duration of coastal low clouds Saturday night through Monday night, especially north of Cape Blanco. There is a likelihood of further warming from Tuesday through the long holiday weekend (Day 6 through 10), and a little more than 50% of ECMWF ensemble members indicate strong warming by Thursday. Meantime, the mean and majority solution of GEFS members is not quite as bullish. So, the most likely scenarios are hot or very hot. The warmer scenario for late in the week would also include both an episode of northeast low level winds with downslope warming for Brookings, and then up to a few days of stronger westerly winds on the east side. && .AVIATION 27/06Z TAFS...Marine moisture is sustaining low ceilings along the Oregon coast, with MVFR levels over North Bend and IFR ceilings over Brookings. Ceilings will likely remain at MVFR or IFR along the coast overnight, with low chances (10-20%) of drizzle north of Cape Blanco. Areas of drizzle may locally lower visibilities, so extra caution is encouraged. Marine clouds should clear up as the upper trough moves to the east. Inland areas will stay VFR through the TAF period, as any clouds that do develop will not affect flight levels. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Thursday, June 27, 2024...Relatively light winds and seas are expected through early this afternoon. A return of gusty northerly winds is expected late this afternoon into Friday, with steep seas affecting areas south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas will peak late Friday afternoon and evening, with steep seas continuing south of Cape Blanco and an area of very steep hazardous seas possible between 5 and 20 nm from shore south of Brookings. Winds and seas lower Saturday and Sunday. Then gusty northerly winds and elevated seas are expected early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER.../Issued 230 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ Winds have decreased overnight, with an intrustion of stratus into southwest Oregon. Later Thursday through Friday should see a short warming/drying trend before another weak trough passage and marine push by mid to late weekend. This event shouldn`t cool the temperatures too much. Thereafter, next week looks to be a fairly high confidence warming and drying event. Some red ERC numbers are showing up toward Thursday and Friday in the GACC`s 10-day projected table indicating values reaching or exceeding the 95th percentile. Stavish && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for PZZ356-376. && $$