104
FXUS62 KMHX 160012
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
812 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure to our south will strengthen tonight and
tomorrow as it drifts northwards to wards the southern NC coast.
There is potential that this low becomes a Tropical Storm
tonight or tomorrow before it makes landfall. Troughing will
remain over the Eastern Seaboard through next week as well
keeping unsettled conditions across ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 5 PM Sun...Little change in the current weather is
expected through most of tonight. Scattered showers will
continue to stream across the area to the north of a developing
and nearly stalled low pressure system. Strong NE/ENE winds will
also continue at around 20-30 mph, highest along the coast, and
temperatures will remain mild and in the 70s.

By early tomorrow morning conditions will begin to deteriorate
as the low pressure system to our south continues to strengthen
and drift northward and may become a tropical storm (see
discussion below). Rain chances will increase just before
daybreak along the southern coast as out bands from the
circulation move onshore. Winds will also increase slightly with
gusts over 40 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 5 PM Sun...Biggest development this afternoon has been
the increased potential of a tropical storm forming to the south
of the Carolina coast tonight or tomorrow. The National
Hurricane Center is starting advisories on what will be called
PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) #8, and Tropical Storm Warnings
have been issued for Eastern NC from Surf City to Ocracoke
Inlet.

Overall, the expected threat from this low whether it meets the
characteristics of a tropical storm has not changed much,
however there is increased potential for further strengthening
of this low before landfall now that it is becoming better
organized.

*TIMING*

Impacts from this system will begin tomorrow morning as rain
showers move inland from the the southeast, and spread northward
through the day. Winds will strengthen tomorrow morning as the
low tracks northward towards Cape Fear, and winds should peak
late morning or early tomorrow afternoon across the area.

*IMPACTS*

-Flash Flooding

Very heavy rainfall is expected to fall from this storm as PWATs
surge over 2" by tomorrow. Expect the heaviest rain amounts
along and south of US 70 with up to 4-7 inches possible (and
locally higher amounts possible). Lesser amounts of 3-5 inches
can be expected further north, however with there still being
uncertainty in the track and intensity of this storm, expected
rain totals could vary from the current forecast.

-Coastal Flooding

The coastal flooding threat has changed very little, but there
is now potential for up to 3 ft of water AGL in low lying areas.
See Coastal Flooding Section below for more details.

-Tornado Potential

The current forecast track of PTC 8 moving north over Cape Fear
tomorrow would bring right front quadrant of this system across
Eastern NC. Due to this a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will develop over the area, and there will be a
risk for tornadoes. Of course much uncertainty exists with this
aspect as well, and the ultimate threat of tornadoes will depend
on the strength of the circulation and exact track.

-Strong Winds at the Coast

Winds will strengthen to 30-40 mph along the coast tomorrow,
with potential for wind gusts to reach 40-50 mph especially
within rain bands. This may cause sporadic power outages and/or
tree damage.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 6 PM Sun...
Eastern North Carolina will remain unsettled through the entire
period as an impactful low moves out of the area Tuesday. Beyond
that, troughing over the Eastern Seaboard will continue to
bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
region into next weekend.

Tuesday...The low then continues inland on Tue eventually
lifting north of the region by Tue afternoon allowing for much
more benign weather to finally begin to overspread ENC for at
least a brief time period Tue afternoon and evening. Expecting
below avg temps across ENC Tue with highs only getting into the
70s to low 80s while lows get down into the 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday into the weekend... Previously mentioned upper trough
will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the
week while at the surface previously mentioned low is forecast
to be to the north and likely dissipated. As we get into the
weekend there is increasing uncertainty with the forecast as the
upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard looks to cutoff into an
upper low in the Southeast as upper ridging builds across the
Northeast but there is a rather large spread in timing and depth
of the cutoff low this weekend across all available guidance so
the forecast beyond Friday is low confidence.

Either way, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible across ENC into the weekend as troughing
continues to remain a focus for shower and tstm activity. Will
note however, winds will finally ease by Wed as the pressure
gradient relaxes as a weakness in the ridge centered to our
north briefly develops, though a second ridge of high pressure
does begin to extend south into the area by Friday. Otherwise
continued onshore flow will keep clouds around the region while
temps remain at or below avg.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday afternoon/...
As of 1930 Sunday...Mostly VFR currently with bouncing MVFR CIG
and VIS due to showers over inland terminals which is expected
to continue for a few more hours with a brief lull in shower
activity after midnight. MVFR ceilings first return to PGV/ISO
as low stratus builds over the Coastal Plain, similar to last
night. Rain chances then increase for all terminals from south
to north tomorrow morning as the low begins to migrate
northward toward the coast. This will also bring associated
MVFR CIGs, and eventually IFR flight cats by midday Monday.
Winds generally ENE 10-15kt with infrequent gusts to 20kt
overnight strengthen through the morning Monday, peaking late
morning/early afternoon. Highest windspeeds near coast,
approaching 30kt gusts with higher gusts possible under stronger
storms. Crosswind hazard for EWN runway 14R/32L mid-morning
onward. LLWS concerns come into the play after the end of this
TAF period for OAJ.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 6 PM Sun...Continued unsettled weather will bring a chance
for sub-VFR conditions across ENC Tue as a low pressure system
moves out of the area. After the low moves to the north we will
still see at least a low end threat on Wed and Thurs for sub-
VFR conditions as daily chances for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will remain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 6 PM Sun...Dangerous boating conditions expected through
tomorrow as winds remain strong and even increase as an area of
low pressure develops to our south. This low may become a
Tropical Storm tonight or tomorrow and NHC has started writing
advisories on it as PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) #8.

Winds tonight will be ENE at 20-30 kts, with the highest winds
south of Cape Hatteras. By early tomorrow morning winds will
increase to 25-35 kts with gusts to 40-45 kts south of Cape
Hatteras, and 25-30 kts with gusts to 35 kts to the north. Winds
will likely peak sometime in the early afternoon, and slowly
weaken late in the day. Seas will continue to be quite hazardous
through tomorrow. Expect waves to range from 8-13 ft through
tonight, and then increase to 10-15 ft tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 6 PM Sun...Dangerous marine conditions continue into
Tuesday, but gradually improve from south to north with winds
easing down to 15-20 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts by Tue
morning and veering to a SE and eventually SW direction while
seas fall down to 5-8 ft along our coastal waters. Winds and
seas fall even further Wed with winds remaining S`rly at 10-15
kts while seas along our coastal waters finally lower down to
3-5 ft by Wed morning. This should then end SCA criteria across
all waters with more benign boating conditions forecast for
Thurs. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible through the period with locally enhanced winds and seas
possible within the strongest storms that may develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 6 PM Sun...Widespread heavy rain is expected late
tomorrow through Tuesday as low pressure develops to our south
and pushes northward. Abundant tropical moisture with this
system will lead to extremely heavy rainfall rates over areas
that have become saturated over the last week. Where the
heaviest rainfall sets up remains uncertain due to larger than
average spread in model guidance, but confidence in heaviest
rainfall remains highest along and south of US 70 where storm
total 4-6 inches of rain is possible. A more widespread 2-4
inches is forecast for the rest of ENC.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 6 PM Sun...There will be potential for coastal flooding of
up to 1-3 ft AGL tonight and tomorrow as winds strengthen in
association with a developing low pressure system to our south
over the Gulf Stream which has the potential to become a
Tropical Storm in that time frame. Additionally, coastal
flooding may be worsened due to the astronomically high tide
cycle we are entering.

Ahead of this system, strong ENE/E winds will buildup water
along the SE portion of the Pamlico Sound as well as the Neuse,
Bay, and Pamlico Rivers. Oceanside, high water levels in
addition to strong wave run up will likely produce ocean
overwash along NC 12 on the Outer Banks at times of high tide.

Additionally with this system we can expect a high threat of
rip currents, rough and dangerous surf/shore break, and beach
erosion.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ195-196-199.
     Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday afternoon for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ080-094-
     194>196-199.
     Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday morning for
     NCZ090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ195-196-199-
     203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152.
     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ154-156-158.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX