Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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695 FXUS62 KMHX 010535 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 135 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Humid conditions persist this evening and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move through the area tomorrow morning with high pressure building back into the area from the north on Tuesday. Oppressive heat and humidity build back in over the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 8 PM Sun...Key Messages: *Heat advisory has ended, with apparent temperatures falling to near 90 degrees at the time of this update *Severe weather threat has decreased through tonight, but remains non-zero. *Flash flooding concerns have decreased through tonight. Ahead of the cold front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have blossomed along a pre-frontal trough in central and NE NC and are spreading eastward this evening. So far, meager wind shear and weak forcing has prevented widespread storm organization along this trough in our forecast area. MLCAPEs have dropped to near 2000J/kg with the help of overcast skies from the spreading of anvils today. As we get into tonight, MLCAPE will continue gradually decreasing. Shear will increase a tad for NE portions of the CWA as the prefrontal trough sags a bit further south, which could increase shower and tstorm coverage ahead of the frontal passage. Once we transition to early morning tomorrow, coverage will increase substantially along the cold front as it makes its way through the CWA. Still keeping Likely/Categorical PoPs for this frontal passage. While strong gusts can`t be ruled out, upper level support is relatively low, resulting in a lower severe threat with the frontal convection. Latest sounding shows PWATs of 2.20", suggesting heavy rain is still likely in the stronger storms through the duration of the event. Storm motion is expected to pick up a tad tonight however, which will limit the potential for training or stationary storms. For this reason, flash flooding concerns have gone down. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy ahead of the front, and then drop sharply into the lower 70s behind the front which will likely make it to the southern Pamlico Sound and US 70 corridor by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 830PM Sunday...No major changes with this forecast update. Decreased thunder and PoP chances in the morning and early afternoon hours behind the cold front with more stable conditions setting up right behind the boundary. Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Sun...The cold front will be located across southern NC tomorrow morning, and will eventually push offshore in the afternoon. Widespread areas of rain and thunderstorms will persist across the southern half of Eastern NC into the afternoon, while cooler and drier air begins to move in to northern NC. There is some uncertainty how quickly the front will push offshore and if a sea breeze might hold it up along the coast. Eventually, drier and more stable air will win out and reach the southern coast which will gradually bring an end to precip late in the day. Temperatures will be well below normal thanks to widespread cloud cover most of the day across the southern coast, and the influx of cooler and drier air farther north. Have highs in the mid to upper 70s for most locations except for the norther coastal plain where some afternoon sun will boost temps into the low 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM Sun... KEY MESSAGES: Cooler than average temps are forecast on Tue and Wed Oppressive heat and humidity return Fri through Sun Monday Night through Wed...Cold front will be well offshore by Mon evening with high pressure ridging building in from the north and west overnight. Outside of a few lingering showers along the Crystal Coast and OBX and a few rumbles of thunder offshore early Mon evening, the area should remain relatively dry Mon night with cloud cover clearing from north to south through the night. Will have a steady but light NE wind through the evening as well behind the departing front which should limit any potential fog threat. Cooler temps persist behind this frontal passage as well with lows Mon night getting down into the upper 50s to low 60s inland, and upper 60s to near 70 along the OBX. Ridging gradually slides E`wards Tue and Wed bringing fair weather to ENC as well as below avg temps. Highs get into the mid to upper 80s and lows get into the 60s each night. With dewpoints much lower behind the front as well, it will feel more comfortable outside. Thurs through Sat...Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore allowing return flow to resume across ENC. This will bring a return to oppressive temps and humidity especially Fri and Sat which could threaten to bring more heat related impacts to the area next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06Z Tue/... As of 135 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across TAF terminals early this morning but with two clusters of showers and thunderstorms in their vicinity - the first along a pre-frontal trough which will likely impact terminals south of PGV at the beginning of the TAF period, and another immediately ahead of a cold front currently pushing into southern VA this hour. Upstream observations show VFR conditions still prevailing in these two areas of convection, except for brief periods of MVFR/IFR with heavier rainfall. Prior forecast captured these trends well and only made some minor adjustments to timing of both bands. Probability of MVFR cigs is high (80-90%), and IFR cigs is moderate (30-40%). Front will push across the terminals this morning with dry air filling in as high pressure builds in its wake. Guidance does show the front getting held up along the coast briefly this morning, so MVFR cigs will probably hold on for EWN/OAJ into the early afternoon while VFR likely returns by mid-morning across the coastal plain. Dry and clearing conditions prevail over all terminals by sunset as high pressure becomes dominant areawide. Southwesterly winds this morning quickly veer northerly and then northeasterly behind the front, gusting to 15-20 kt through the afternoon. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 320 PM Sun...A return to primarily VFR conditions is then forcast Mon night into the end of the period as high pressure ridging sets up overhead. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 3 PM Sun...Marginal Small Craft conditions will continue this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front with SW winds 15-20 kts, and frequent gusts to 25 kts. Tonight, winds will weaken slightly right ahead of the front, and then turn to the N/NE behind the front early tomorrow morning from north to south across the coastal waters. N/NE winds wilAs of 845 PM Sun...VFR conditions currently across the terminals, with drops to MVFR in areas of more intense convection. Another round of more widespread frontally- forced convection will begin to approach the terminals from the north near or shortly after 6z. This band has higher probabilities of more predominant MVFR (80-90% chance) and potentially IFR cigs (40-50%) associated with it. Decided to put predominant MVFR with SCT IFR CIGS and MVFR VIS for this TAF issuance. Any IFR that develops is expected to be right along the frontally forced line of convection, and should be shorter in duration. The front will move through Monday morning, and expect sub- VFR conditions(low stratus, rain and reduced vsbys) to linger through mid morning and early afternoon, grad improving to VFR from north to south. SW winds will quickly shift behind the front Mon morning, becoming NNE gusting to 15-20 kt through the afternoon.l then strengthen tomorrow morning to 15-25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts across the coastal waters and eastern sounds with Small Craft conditions again developing. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft, though could occasionally rise to 6 ft across the central waters tomorrow. LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 330 PM Sun...Front should push offshore and out to sea by Mon night with gusty winds quickly diminishing to 10 to 15 kts and gusts to 20 kts by Tue morning ending SCAs across our waters. Fair weather and benign boating conditions are then forecast from Tue to the end of the period. Winds will continue to ease Tue and Wed as high pressure ridging extends over the our waters eventually down to 5 to 10 kts while veering to an easterly direction by Wed. WInds eventually become S`rly at 10-15 kts by Thurs as ridging shifts E. Lingering 4-6 ft seas likely Monday night. As we get into Tue and beyond, as the winds ease seas will also lower down to 2 to 4 ft by Tue and remain at these heights into the end of the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ SHORT TERM...SGK/RJ LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...MS/RCF MARINE...SGK/MS/RCF